915 E Los Ebanos St · San Juan, TX 78589

$137,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2013 5,001 sqft lot $141/sqft · 11% below area Est $154k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 976 square feet of comfortable living space and built in 2013. Ideally located just minutes from the highway, it provides easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with a cozy living area, practical kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms. With a little personal touch and light updating, this home presents a great opportunity to add value and make it your own. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors—don’t miss out on this affordable home with great potential!

Key facts

• 5,001 sq ft lot
• Built 2013
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-715/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Amanda Garza-Pena El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 595 students, 94% FRL); R Yzaguirre Middle (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 775 students, 94% FRL); Psja Early College H S (math 33% / reading 65%, grade D, #553 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 2,459 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 72% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,493 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,323
• List price: $137,500
• Delta: -10.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 Gonzalez Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,045 (+7%)	8mo	$195,000	$187	57
1103 San Cristobal St	0.64mi	3/1.0	870 (-11%)	2mo	$140,000	$161	51
1208 Morningset Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+13%)	6mo	$185,000	$168	50
904 Gonzalez Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,097 (+12%)	4mo	$149,990	$137	48
1104 Short Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-8%)	22mo	$157,000	$175	42
2013 Loma Vista Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,066 (+9%)	17mo	$157,000	$147	40
2046 N Retama St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,091 (+12%)	20mo	$210,000	$192	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-26,025
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-27,343
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,195 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $126,974

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-21	+0% $-60	+5% $-99	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-107	+0% $-60	+5% $-12	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-25	base $-60	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1109 Del Monte Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	989	$1,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.53mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	45d	1	0.74mi
1309 Valle Vista St Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	45d	1	0.74mi
1305 Valle Vista St Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	0.78mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 2 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	45d	1	0.83mi
103 E Segment Leonel Trevino Rd Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	962	$1,075	$1.12	45d	1	0.98mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	45d	1	1.05mi
400 Rafael Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,100	$1.14	23d	1	1.15mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,080	$1.03	45d	1	1.16mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,270	$1.22	25d	1	1.16mi
203 Encino Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	25d	1	1.16mi
404 N Cesar Chavez Rd Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	783	$1,079	$1.38	45d	2	1.19mi
1106 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	45d	1	1.20mi
300 W Amy Dr Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$995	$1.04	45d	1	1.21mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 2 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,075	$1.12	45d	1	1.22mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,200	$1.26	45d	1	1.22mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 2 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,075	$1.12	25d	1	1.22mi
234 W Jaime St San Juan, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	25d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $137,500 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,500 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,500 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,500 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,500 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,500 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,500 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,500 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,500 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,500 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,500 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,500 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $140,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 976 square feet of comfortable living space and built in 2013. Ideally located just minutes from the highway, it provides easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with a cozy living area, practical kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms. With a little personal touch and light updating, this home presents a great opportunity to add value and make it your own. Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors—don’t miss out on this affordable home with great potential!

18. 2023-07-31
    soldstatus Sold 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Come take a look at this cozy 3 bedroom home in the heart of San Juan! It has quick access to the Expressway, restaurants, shopping malls, entertainment and so much more! The backyard is perfect for entertaining! Motivated Seller! Bring us an offer Today!

19. 2023-07-15
    status Pending 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Come take a look at this cozy 3 bedroom home in the heart of San Juan! It has quick access to the Expressway, restaurants, shopping malls, entertainment and so much more! The backyard is perfect for entertaining! Motivated Seller! Bring us an offer Today!

20. 2023-07-06
    historical Option 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Come take a look at this cozy 3 bedroom home in the heart of San Juan! It has quick access to the Expressway, restaurants, shopping malls, entertainment and so much more! The backyard is perfect for entertaining! Motivated Seller! Bring us an offer Today!

21. 2023-06-27
    price $129,000 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Come take a look at this cozy 3 bedroom home in the heart of San Juan! It has quick access to the Expressway, restaurants, shopping malls, entertainment and so much more! The backyard is perfect for entertaining! Motivated Seller! Bring us an offer Today!

22. 2023-06-04
    listed $137,500 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Come take a look at this cozy 3 bedroom home in the heart of San Juan! It has quick access to the Expressway, restaurants, shopping malls, entertainment and so much more! The backyard is perfect for entertaining! Motivated Seller! Bring us an offer Today!

23. 2020-09-29
    soldstatus
24. 2013-12-17
    soldstatus
25. 2011-01-13
    soldstatus
26. 2010-12-16
    soldstatus
27. 1995-08-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $16/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $140,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-31 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-15 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-06 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-27 Price Changed $129,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-04 Listed $137,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-01-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,703 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.