3909 W Palmetto St · Tampa, FL 33607

$309,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1954 6,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special in the heart of Tampa! This property is packed with potential and perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create value. Located in a highly desirable area near International Plaza and Bay Street, Tampa International Airport, Raymond James Stadium, shopping, dining, and major highways, the location alone makes this an incredible opportunity. Home also has a huge backyard. The home needs work but offers endless possibilities for renovation, rental income, or resale. Surrounded by growth and development, this is your chance to secure a property in one of Tampa’s most convenient and fast-moving areas. Properties in this location do not last long — brin

Key facts

• Huge backyard
• Convenient area
• 6,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• HIGHLY DESIRABLE AREA
• HUGE BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; Zoning: RS-50
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Built on a slab; Approximately 0.14 acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,371/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1994% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $309,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.20%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-26,905
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-18,705
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33607

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$708
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,712

Max offer price $309,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $735	-5% $628	+0% $521	+5% $413	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $387	+0% $521	+5% $654	+10% $787
Rate	-1.0pp $677	-0.5pp $599	base $521	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2511 N Grady Ave #85 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1505	$3,700	$2.46	25d	1	0.09mi
2615 N Grady Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1101	$4,529	$4.11	0d	16	0.13mi
2021 N Lemans Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1031	$2,925	$2.84	0d	25	0.21mi
4009 W Spruce St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1362	$2,995	$2.20	0d	1	0.29mi
2281 N Lois Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1124	$5,008	$4.45	0d	108	0.41mi
2202 N Lois Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$3,511	$3.60	0d	44	0.44mi
1701 N Lois Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	982	$3,132	$3.19	0d	29	0.46mi
4310 W Spruce St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$4,478	$3.72	0d	32	0.58mi
4101 W Arch St Unit A Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1378	$3,500	$2.54	25d	1	0.63mi
4106 W Arch St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,375	$1.53	25d	1	0.66mi
4106 W Arch St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,375	$1.53	16d	1	0.66mi
4016 W Nassau St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	2156	$3,000	$1.39	19d	1	0.69mi
4205 W Arch St Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2590	$5,500	$2.12	21d	1	0.70mi
3421 W Arch St Tampa, FL	3.0	3.5	1547	$3,899	$2.52	6d	1	0.71mi
3418 W La Salle St Unit 3 Tampa, FL	4.0	3.5	2110	$4,995	$2.37	25d	1	0.72mi
4400 W Spruce St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,517	$2.79	0d	29	0.73mi
3730 Midtown Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$4,519	$4.64	0d	19	0.73mi
4504 W Spruce St Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$3,242	$3.07	16d	31	0.80mi
4504 W Spruce St Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$3,155	$3.06	0d	7	0.80mi
3721 W Cass St Unit 21 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1274	$2,400	$1.88	25d	1	0.87mi
3731 W Cass St Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1278	$2,300	$1.80	12d	1	0.89mi
3702 W Cass St #2 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1568	$3,100	$1.98	25d	1	0.93mi
3219 W Leroy St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1524	$4,000	$2.62	19d	1	0.93mi
727 N Himes Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1778	$3,500	$1.97	25d	1	0.94mi
4104 N Thatcher Ave Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1352	$2,500	$1.85	6d	1	1.02mi
3007 W Chestnut St Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1608	$2,000	$1.24	19d	1	1.03mi
4303 W Woodlawn Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$3,900	$2.29	25d	1	1.03mi
2921 W Walnut St Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1271	$2,100	$1.65	25d	1	1.10mi
3815 W North B St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1299	$3,500	$2.69	6d	1	1.11mi
3321 W Woodlawn Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,599	$1.93	25d	1	1.15mi
2907 W Chestnut St Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,650	$1.49	15d	1	1.17mi
2907 W Chestnut St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,650	$1.49	6d	1	1.17mi
305 N Glen Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1704	$2,900	$1.70	18d	1	1.18mi
3302 W Gray St Unit 1312507P Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$5,092	$3.91	21d	1	1.19mi
2901 W Main St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,450	$1.96	25d	1	1.20mi
3916 W North a St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$3,000	$2.15	25d	1	1.20mi
3021 W Tampa Bay Blvd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,600	$2.00	25d	1	1.21mi
801 N Mac Dill Ave Unit 1312508P Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$7,820	$6.01	0d	1	1.23mi
4120 W North A St Unit 60 Tampa, FL	4.0	3.5	2038	$4,949	$2.43	25d	1	1.25mi
2709 W Palmetto St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,581	$1.99	0d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $309,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,236
• − Management: −$3,236
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $1,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$335
• After-tax cash flow: $5,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,291
• Household income: $69,694
• Rent vs Own: 63.0% rent · 37.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1994.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 30% Two or more races 24% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 22% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.77%
• Current HPI: 440.5067
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.62%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $309,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $390 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.