410 S 1st St Spc 199 · El Cajon, CA 92019

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2002 4.55 ac lot Est $176k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is very spacious with vaulted ceilings & very light. Kitchen is very large with center island. The refrigerator is already there. There are many cabinets, and much counter space. There is a family room (or could be used as a formal dining room) that separates the two bedrooms. Both bathrooms are very spacious. Master bedroom has a walk in closet. Separate laundry room with washer & dryer. Large, covered front porch. Covered carport. Visitor parking is nearby.

Key facts

• Large center island
• Manufactured home
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a mobile home park (El Cajon Valley Mobile Home Park); Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Community water/sewer (common interest lot)
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Covered porch with awning(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lexington Elementary (780 students, 89% FRL); Montgomery Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 831 students, 86% FRL); El Cajon Valley High (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 1,652 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 17% district-wide (72 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Grossmont Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $160k implies a 540% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.47%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,225
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1285 E Washington Ave Spc 29	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,167 (-12%)	5mo	$155,000	$133	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $43,190
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $105,774
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92019

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $1,212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,303	-5% $1,257	+0% $1,212	+5% $1,167	+10% $1,121
Rent	-10% $996	-5% $1,104	+0% $1,212	+5% $1,320	+10% $1,428
Rate	-1.0pp $1,293	-0.5pp $1,253	base $1,212	+0.5pp $1,171	+1.0pp $1,128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1041-89 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,355	$2.81	0d	7	0.14mi
639 Bighorn Ct El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$4,300	$3.74	0d	1	0.16mi
1037 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,225	$2.60	0d	5	0.19mi
1065 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	0d	1	0.19mi
1065 E Washington Ave Apt N El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	19d	1	0.19mi
1137 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	0d	1	0.25mi
975 E Washington Ave Apt E El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	23d	1	0.25mi
957 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	0d	1	0.28mi
602 S Mollison Ave Unit C El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	0d	1	0.31mi
200 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,995	$2.10	0d	1	0.40mi
800 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1040	$2,390	$2.30	0d	5	0.41mi
447 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	928	$2,300	$2.48	0d	1	0.41mi
758 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,945	$2.22	0d	2	0.42mi
351 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,395	$2.66	0d	1	0.45mi
415 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	749	$2,359	$3.15	0d	5	0.45mi
233 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,131	$2.53	0d	10	0.52mi
620 E Lexington Ave #3 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,900	$2.90	0d	1	0.55mi
280 N Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$2,195	$2.66	0d	1	0.62mi
805 Benny Way El Cajon, CA	3.0	3.0	1477	$4,300	$2.91	4d	1	0.65mi
1026 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1771	$4,000	$2.26	0d	1	0.67mi
1020 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1768	$4,100	$2.32	0d	1	0.67mi
1036 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1776	$4,350	$2.45	0d	1	0.67mi
851 Taft Ave El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1792	$3,850	$2.15	0d	1	0.68mi
148 Taft Ave Unit 7 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,870	$2.14	0d	1	0.69mi
432 Dominguez Way Unit 13 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	952	$2,195	$2.31	22d	1	0.70mi
346 Jamacha Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,442	$2.75	0d	8	0.72mi
280 Roanoke Rd Unit 1 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1024	$2,395	$2.34	0d	1	0.74mi
280 Roanoke Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,395	$2.34	0d	1	0.74mi
291 Jamacha Rd El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$2,095	$2.54	0d	4	0.76mi
422 Shady Ln El Cajon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,305	$2.56	0d	19	0.79mi
1380 E Washington Ave Unit 49W El Cajon, CA	3.0	3.0	1446	$3,550	$2.46	9d	1	0.80mi
480 Jamacha Rd El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	913	$2,495	$2.73	0d	1	0.81mi
534 Jeffree St El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1118	$3,895	$3.48	11d	1	0.89mi
534 Jeffree St El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.0	1118	$3,895	$3.48	4d	1	0.89mi
505 E Madison Ave #89 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$2,350	$2.41	4d	1	0.92mi
455 Ballantyne St El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	925	$2,195	$2.37	0d	1	0.96mi
340 Wells Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,775	$2.77	0d	2	0.99mi
761 S Orange Ave Unit B El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,095	$2.10	0d	1	1.03mi
390 E Madison Ave Unit E El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.5	1034	$2,300	$2.22	5d	1	1.06mi
303 E Madison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,995	$2.28	0d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $160,000 Pending 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-01-14
    listed $160,000 Active
11. 2026-01-10
    historical
12. 2025-09-18
    price $165,000
13. 2025-07-15
    listed $175,000 Active
14. 2011-12-08
    soldstatus $25,000 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Home is very spacious with vaulted ceilings & very light. Kitchen is very large with center island. The refrigerator is already there. There are many cabinets, and much counter space. There is a family room (or could be used as a formal dining room) that separates the two bedrooms. Both bathrooms are very spacious. Master bedroom has a walk in closet. Separate laundry room with washer & dryer. Large, covered front porch. Covered carport. Visitor parking is nearby.

15. 2011-10-20
    price $39,900
16. 2011-08-11
    price $43,900
17. 2011-07-03
    listed $39,900 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    Home is very spacious with vaulted ceilings & very light. Kitchen is very large with center island. The refrigerator is already there. There are many cabinets, and much counter space. There is a family room (or could be used as a formal dining room) that separates the two bedrooms. Both bathrooms are very spacious. Master bedroom has a walk in closet. Separate laundry room with washer & dryer. Large, covered front porch. Covered carport. Visitor parking is nearby.

18. 2011-07-01
    historical
19. 2011-06-30
    historical
20. 2011-03-18
    price $54,900
21. 2011-01-04
    price $59,900
22. 2010-11-06
    listed $69,900 Active
23. 2010-11-06
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 119.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,630
• − Management: −$2,630
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $12,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,034
• After-tax cash flow: $11,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — El Cajon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cajon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 173,694
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,351
• Household income: $101,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1897.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -553.81%
• Current HPI: 349.3085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.61%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+191.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $160,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $165,000 SDMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $175,000 SDMLS
• 2011-12-08 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-20 Price Changed $39,900 SDMLS
• 2011-08-11 Price Changed $43,900 SDMLS
• 2011-07-03 Listed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2011-07-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2011-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-03-18 Price Changed $54,900 SDMLS
• 2011-01-04 Price Changed $59,900 SDMLS
• 2010-11-06 Listed $69,900 SDMLS
• 2010-11-06 Listed $54,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-13.1%/yr

Latest (2013): $553 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.