400 Deer Run Rd · Kirbyville, MO 65616

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 7,405 sqft lot $148/sqft · at area comps Est $212k · at est. $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent 3BR/2BA 1418sqft 1 level home, custom built with designer fixtures, blinds & lots of upgrades. Very Well Taken care of. Bright Kitchen w/ large everyday dining bar, pantry & formal dining or den! Gorgeous Stone wood burning fireplace in living room. Master w/ private bath & walk in closet. 2nd Bedrm w/ pass thru to 2nd bathroom. Premium Large Lot w/ privacy fence & beautiful magnolia tree in back yard. Low Traffic cul-de-sac location, no homes behind you! HOA pays for front Lawn mowing, club house & swimming pool. Branson Schools!

Key facts

• Inviting fireplace
• Open layout
• New lvp flooring

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• INVITING FIREPLACE
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• NEW GARAGE DOOR
• NEW LED DUSK-TO-DAWN LIGHTS
• HUGE FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $144 (about $48/month); includes snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage faces front
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Full privacy fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Soaking tub; Wood-burning masonry fireplace in the living room; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.3% in Kirbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#494 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Primary (345 students, 72% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1061 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,706 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,217
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: 1.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,603
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-333
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1061
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $926/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,699

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $288	+0% $228	+5% $167	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $149	+0% $228	+5% $306	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $282	base $228	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
230 Prairie Dr Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,895	$1.12	46d	1	1.37mi
175 Christian Way Branson, MO	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	46d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 1183-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   status Active 1183-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1183-char remark
4. 2026-04-29
   listed $215,000 Active 1183-char remark
5. 2014-05-22
   soldstatus
6. 2014-05-21
   soldstatus 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   Excellent 3BR/2BA 1418sqft 1 level home, custom built with designer fixtures, blinds & lots of upgrades. Very Well Taken care of. Bright Kitchen w/ large everyday dining bar, pantry & formal dining or den! Gorgeous Stone wood burning fireplace in living room. Master w/ private bath & walk in closet. 2nd Bedrm w/ pass thru to 2nd bathroom. Premium Large Lot w/ privacy fence & beautiful magnolia tree in back yard. Low Traffic cul-de-sac location, no homes behind you! HOA pays for front Lawn mowing, club house & swimming pool. Branson Schools!

7. 2013-12-09
   listed $116,000 576-char remark

   Show marketing remark (576 chars)

   Excellent 3BR/2BA 1418sqft 1 level home, custom built with designer fixtures, blinds & lots of upgrades. Very Well Taken care of. Bright Kitchen w/ large everyday dining bar, pantry & formal dining or den! Gorgeous Stone wood burning fireplace in living room. Master w/ private bath & walk in closet. 2nd Bedrm w/ pass thru to 2nd bathroom. Premium Large Lot w/ privacy fence & beautiful magnolia tree in back yard. Low Traffic cul-de-sac location, no homes behind you! HOA pays for front Lawn mowing, club house & swimming pool. Branson Schools!

8. 2010-08-23
   soldstatus
9. 2002-08-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,086 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,160/yr (+$97/mo · 125.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$926
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$203
• After-tax cash flow: $2,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kirbyville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #19167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Taney County · 28,460 people
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1065.0

Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+85.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-05-06 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-29 Listed $215,000 SOMO
• 2014-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-21 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2013-12-09 Listed $116,000 SOMO
• 2010-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $926 · -9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.