407 S West St · Concordia, MO 64020

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1948 6,752 sqft lot Est $135k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Small-town living at its finest! Rare opportunity in town with detached garage/workshop AND shed. If you are looking for something affordable and move-in ready with some added bonuses, this is the home for you. Easy entry with a covered front porch and minimal steps, you'll love the bright, wide open feeling of this one-floor-bungalow. Renovated from top to bottom, the look and feel cannot be beat. New floors, new fixtures, fresh paint, new hot water heater, new HVAC, new appliances, plus a clean, updated bathroom. With a unique layout and hundred-year-old charm, this little bungalow is like a buyers choose-your-own-adventure floorplan. You can make the space work for you exactly how you ne

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Outbuildings
• Workshop

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• PULL-DOWN STAIRCASE
• OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located within city limits
• HOA & community: No association fees; No community maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with rear-facing door and opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family home; Bungalow / Ranch floor plan; Estimated above-grade finished area
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; 76–100 years old
• Exterior features: City limits lot; Garage(s); Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (includes main-floor bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Painted cabinets; Pantry; Entry; Main floor bedroom; Main floor primary bedroom; Mud room; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Concordia R-II (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $152,157 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.65%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,454
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 S Magdalena St	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,081 (+4%)	11mo	$189,900	$176	75
309 S Bismark St	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,088 (+5%)	22mo	$119,500	$110	67
312 S Leona St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-13%)	4mo	$104,500	$116	65
507 7th St	0.20mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (+11%)	11mo	$149,900	$131	57
112 S Main St	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+12%)	8mo	$187,000	$161	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $104,677
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $300,646
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64020

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $199	+0% $149	+5% $100	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $89	+0% $149	+5% $209	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $194	base $149	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $174,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$942/yr (+$78/mo · 124.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$1,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $2,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concordia R-II
• NCES district ID: 2910080
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,584
• Composite: 36.98/100
• National rank: #4527
• State rank: #109 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concordia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #10455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concordia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,928

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.33%
• Current HPI: 277.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $179,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.