12407 Pegleg Way · West Ocean City, MD 21811

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 299 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1993 3,000 sqft lot $160/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Turn Key 2 Bedroom Single Wide With Addition. Recent updates include: New LVP Flooring , Freshly Painted, HVAC in 2021, Maintenance Free Composite Steps & Railing, Roof in 2010. Screened in Porch, 8 x 10 Shed. Best Buy in Assateague Pointe !

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• 8 x 10 shed
• Hvac in 2021

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• HVAC IN 2021
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• 8 X 10 SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in West Ocean City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#69 in MD, #2,499 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ocean City Elementary (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 860 statewide, top 10%, 521 students, 44% FRL); Stephen Decatur Middle (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #53 of 225 statewide, top 24%, 697 students, 50% FRL); Stephen Decatur High (math 64% / reading 78%, grade B+, #37 of 222 statewide, top 17%, 1,431 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $199k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,724 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-57,135
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-81,555
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21811

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,583/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$160
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $129,724

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-280	-5% $-336	+0% $-392	+5% $-448	+10% $-505
Rent	-10% $-501	-5% $-447	+0% $-392	+5% $-338	+10% $-283
Rate	-1.0pp $-292	-0.5pp $-342	base $-392	+0.5pp $-444	+1.0pp $-496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $199,000
3. 2025-06-21
   listed $219,000 Active
4. 1992-11-12
   soldstatus $23,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,583 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,876 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$293/yr (+$24/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,583
• − Insurance: −$1,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$8,289
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,989
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $56,748
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5672
• State rank: #6 of 24 in MD

Livability — West Ocean City

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #2499

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Worcester County · 35,603 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 24,377
• Household income: $90,082
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,363 people
• By 2030: 51,191 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 50,459 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 49,451 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 48,533 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 44,223 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 38.0% · R 60.0% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.52%
• Current HPI: 292.9004
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+732.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-21 Listed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $23,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,583 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.