14141 Cherry St · Chester, VA 23831

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1961 0.68 ac lot $182/sqft · 11% below area Est $337k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to this Classic 1961 Rancher Full of timeless Charm and Character, offering Comfortable one-level living on an oversized lot with room to spread out and enjoy! Featuring 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, and an Attached Oversized 2 Car Garage! This Home offers Beautiful Wood Floors and a layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining! The Primary Suite includes a private ensuite bath, while the spacious Family Room showcases rich knotty-pine paneling and a Beautiful Brick Fireplace, creating the perfect cozy gathering space! The oversized Kitchen offers abundant room for cooking and entertaining and includes a working vintage Classic Lady Kenmore Stove - a nostalgic centerpi

Key facts

• 0.68 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Composition roof; Frame construction with wood siding and drywall
• Construction: Built (actual year recorded); Frame construction; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Screened porch; Deck; Porch; Level yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with knotty pine cabinets and breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Electric stove / electric cooking
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with en suite and ceiling fan; Bedroom 2 on main level with wood floor, closet, ceiling fan with light; Bedroom 3 on main level with wood floor, closet, ceiling fan and wall paneling
• Flooring: Wood flooring in living areas and bedrooms; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bath includes tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (propane)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace (masonry, wood-burning); Bath in primary bedroom; Main level primary bedroom; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-197 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C.C. Wells Elementary (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 589 students, 49% FRL); Carver Middle (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #320 of 342 statewide, top 95%, 1,022 students, 80% FRL); Thomas Dale High (math 41% / reading 82%, grade B-, #240 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 2,556 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 26% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $300k implies a 1279% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,048 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,963
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -11.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14106 Thrushwood Turn	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,730 (+5%)	7mo	$350,000	$202	75
14210 Cherry St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-14%)	9mo	$325,000	$228	66
14305 Sonnenburg Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,641 (-0%)	1mo	$350,000	$213	66
3700 Nesting Way	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,810 (+10%)	9mo	$275,000	$152	63
3161 Poplar View Pl	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,886 (+14%)	1mo	$381,950	$203	53
14205 Sonnenburg Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,517 (-8%)	2mo	$344,000	$227	52
15116 Alderwood Turn	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,886 (+14%)	7mo	$356,000	$189	50
2919 Mistwood Forest Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-14%)	0mo	$330,000	$233	46
14502 Mistwood Forest Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+9%)	9mo	$297,500	$165	43
3113 Ramsey Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+15%)	2mo	$390,000	$206	40
3325 Appleford Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,832 (+11%)	9mo	$379,900	$207	39
14203 Sonnenburg Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,862 (+13%)	6mo	$330,000	$177	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-63,230
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-79,666
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23831

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,186/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,380

Max offer price $265,146

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-112	+0% $-197	+5% $-282	+10% $-366
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-281	+0% $-197	+5% $-113	+10% $-28
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-120	base $-197	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4200 Greenbriar Dr Chester, VA	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,500	$1.28	45d	1	0.96mi
15151 Timsberry Cir Chester, VA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1586	$1,598	$1.01	3d	30	1.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   historical $299,900 69-char remark
2. 1969-07-14
   soldstatus $21,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,186 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,186
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $-505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #5369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 54,827
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 39,529
• Household income: $95,750
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 952.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.93%
• Current HPI: 252.2448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1278.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $299,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $299,900 CVRMLS
• 1969-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $21,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,186 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.