509 Bush Hill Rd · Rushford, NY 14737

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1976 5.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Set on a calming country road in Farmersville, this property offers a rare opportunity to own a private rural retreat with plenty of potential. The home is a 1008 sq ft 3-bedroom 1 bath manufactured home with additions to offer a spacious living environment Nestled in a rural area known for its open surroundings, it makes it ideal for the outdoorsman or someone looking to get away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. With the detached garage for toys and extra storage, this home is perfect for weekend getaway or a full-time residence. . All of which offer a piece of mind.

Key facts

• Open surroundings
• Detached garage
• 5.46 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE RURAL RETREAT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ENVIRONMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OPEN SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horses allowed on the property; Lot size approximately 5.46 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Propane tank owned; Secluded, wooded lot; Rectangular lot (approx. 350 x 733)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating with forced air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen-family room combo; Living-dining room; Bedroom on main level; Sunroom/Florida room; Total 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($417/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,140 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Cuba-Rushford Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #350 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $102,480 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $37,732
• Equity at exit: $78,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $109,314
• Equity at exit: $140,987

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14737

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $807/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $981

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 586-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $807 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,460 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 80.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$807
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$418
• After-tax cash flow: $835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cuba-Rushford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3632010
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,256
• Composite: 44.53/100
• National rank: #2792
• State rank: #350 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rushford

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1140
• US rank: #23622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,071

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 305.4492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $807 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.