431 15th St · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$231,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,347 sqft · Land · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 5,175 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 431 15th Street! The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Wolfforth, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West! Estimated completion date: 07/21/2026. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Utility room
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-266/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $172,410 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $124,825
• Equity at exit: $208,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $368,485
• Equity at exit: $450,706

Cash invested: $64,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $228,067

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $43	+0% $-22	+5% $-88	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-158	-5% $-90	+0% $-22	+5% $46	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $37	base $-22	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,998
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	0.21mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	45d	1	0.32mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.42mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	15d	1	0.44mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	15d	1	0.60mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	45d	1	0.60mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	45d	1	0.62mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	23d	1	0.62mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	45d	1	0.63mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	15d	1	0.64mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.64mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	23d	1	0.65mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	45d	1	0.65mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	0.66mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	15d	1	0.66mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	45d	1	0.67mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	15d	1	0.70mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	45d	1	0.71mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	45d	1	0.78mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	45d	1	0.78mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	15d	2	0.96mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	15d	1	1.08mi
2916 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	45d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $231,990 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $231,990 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $231,990 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $231,990 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-05-07
   price $231,990 795-char remark

   Show marketing remark (795 chars)

   Welcome to 431 15th Street! The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Wolfforth, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West! Estimated completion date: 07/21/2026. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built.

6. 2026-05-01
   price $231,990 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Welcome to 431 15th Street! The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Wolfforth, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

7. 2026-04-09
   listed $229,990 Active 795-char remark

   Show marketing remark (795 chars)

   Welcome to 431 15th Street! The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Wolfforth, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West! Estimated completion date: 07/21/2026. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built.

8. 2026-02-26
   listed $229,990 Active 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (699 chars)

   Welcome to 431 15th Street! The Dawn is one of our one-story plans featured in the Overlook West community in Wolfforth, TX. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a spacious 2-car garage. The open concept layout includes a bright kitchen with an island that overlooks the dining and family rooms, perfect for entertaining. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom, featuring granite counter tops, and a spacious walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms are near a full bath ideal for guest or family. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, and the utility room is conveniently located just off the kitchen. Contact us today to find your home in Overlook West!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,245 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,393/yr (+$283/mo · 398.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,995
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$4,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $231,990 LARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $231,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Listed $229,990 LARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $229,990 Zillow