DARWIN Plan · Newberry, FL 32669

$291,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,886 sqft · SingleFamily · 845 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 845 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($577/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newberry Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 661 students, 44% FRL); Oak View Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 964 students, 49% FRL); Newberry High School (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 728 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 845 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 845 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,705
• Equity at exit: $43,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-26,821
• Equity at exit: $25,246

Cash invested: $81,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,380/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $291,990

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $149	+0% $48	+5% $-53	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-55	+0% $48	+5% $151	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $122	base $48	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,998
• Closing costs: $8,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2181 NW 247th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,475	$1.40	23d	1	0.05mi
1100 NW 248th Dr Newberry, FL	4.0	2.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	23d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $291,990 Active 845 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 842 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 841 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 840 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 839 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $291,990 Active 837 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,990 Active 836 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $291,990 Active 834 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $291,990 Active 833 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $291,990 Active 832 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $291,990 Active 831 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $291,990 Active 828 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $291,990 Active 827 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $291,990 Active 826 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $291,990 Active 825 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $291,990 Active 824 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $291,990 Active 823 DOM
18. 2025-09-30
    price $291,990 1167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

    Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

19. 2025-06-12
    price $299,990 1167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

    Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

20. 2025-04-01
    price $304,990 1167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

    Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

21. 2024-09-11
    price $301,990 1167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

    Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

22. 2024-04-09
    price $311,990 1167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

    Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

23. 2024-03-05
    price $309,990 1167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

    Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

24. 2024-02-27
    listed $308,990 Active 1167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1167 chars)

    Discover the warmth of home in this cozy two-story, three bedroom home, and 2.5 bathroom home. The highly sought-after Darwin floorplan is located in Avalon Woods in Newberry, Florida. The thoughtful design creates an intimate atmosphere and seamlessly blends the living, dining, and kitchen spaces on the main floor flowing to the outdoor patio perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features a large kitchen island with quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a microwave, range, and built-in dishwasher. Upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom, loft, and two bedrooms sharing the second full bathroom. The primary bedroom has an ensuite bathroom with a double vanity sinks, quartz countertops, and a large walk-in closet. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs next to the bedrooms. This home is the perfect retreat where every space invites you to unwind and truly feel at home. Like all homes in Avalon Woods, the Darwin is complete with a state-of-the-art smart home system that keeps you connected to your home at all times, whether you're 5-minutes or a plane ride away. Contact us today to find your new home in Avalon Woods.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,356
• − Property taxes: −$4,380
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,511
• − Management: −$2,511
• − Depreciation: −$8,494
• Taxable loss: −$4,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,039
• After-tax cash flow: $1,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home in Newberry, Florida, offers a cozy and modern living space with a great floor plan and ample natural light. It's in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-09 Price Changed $311,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-05 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-27 Listed $308,990 Zillow