4245 Fennec Fox Way · Kathleen, FL 33810

$320,690

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Land · 62 Days on market

Built 2026 6,969 sqft lot $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Introducing the Harper floorplan at Fox Branch, where every square foot is put to use with sophistication and comfort. Inside this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you’ll find 1,665 square feet of comfortable living. This meticulously designed residence combines modern convenience with timeless elegance, showcasing quartz in the kitchen and bathrooms and luxury vinyl plank floors in the main living areas and bathrooms. As you step inside, you are greeted by an inviting foyer that leads you into the heart of the home. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen, creating a perfect space for entertaining family and friends. The sp

Key facts

• Quartz in kitchen
• Oversized island
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• QUARTZ IN KITCHEN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Socrum Elementary School (math 44% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 546 students, 65% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,078 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-70,839
• Equity at exit: $47,816

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-87,330
• Equity at exit: $27,727

Cash invested: $89,793 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,810/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $278,900

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-178	+0% $-289	+5% $-400	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-388	+0% $-289	+5% $-189	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-207	base $-289	+0.5pp $-372	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,172
• Closing costs: $9,621
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3923 Ward Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,595	$1.93	11d	1	0.50mi
3366 Mahogany Pointe Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,125	$1.36	4d	1	1.23mi
3382 Winchester Estates Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,999	$1.34	3d	1	1.47mi
8426 Greystone Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,350	$1.51	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $320,690
3. 2026-03-31
   price $323,990
4. 2026-03-23
   price $321,990
5. 2026-02-25
   listed $328,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,810
• − Insurance: −$1,603
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,420
• − Management: −$2,420
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$9,329
• Taxable loss: −$9,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,176
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $320,690 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $323,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $321,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $328,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid