42563 Rustico Rd · Magnolia, TX 77354

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · Land · 68 Days on market

Built 2025 5,400 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

If you're looking for a beautifully crafted one-story home that offers exceptional quality at an affordable price, your search ends here! This Coventry Home is thoughtfully designed for your lifestyle needs. Step into a grand entrance featuring an elegant tray ceiling. The home offers four spacious bedrooms with the flexibility to convert one into a home office or fitness room. The primary bedroom is a peaceful retreat-charming bow window—perfect for enjoying your morning coffee. The primary bath features a spa-like atmosphere with a separate soaking tub and walk-in shower, while a second full bath ensures convenience for guests. The chef-style kitchen includes an oversized island, gr

Key facts

• Grand entrance
• Tray ceiling
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• GRAND ENTRANCE
• TRAY CEILING
• BOW WINDOW
• SEPARATE SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• CHEF-STYLE KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $216,375 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $144,318
• Equity at exit: $261,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $420,717
• Equity at exit: $563,387

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,320

Max offer price $268,180

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $41	-5% $-41	+0% $-123	+5% $-206	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-209	+0% $-123	+5% $-38	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-50	base $-123	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   listed $289,990 Active
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $289,990 Active
4. 2026-02-18
   historical
5. 2026-02-18
   historical
6. 2025-11-10
   listed $289,990 Active
7. 2025-11-10
   historical
8. 2025-08-29
   price $289,990
9. 2025-06-05
   listed $341,467 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,395 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,912/yr (+$326/mo · 280.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$6,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,587
• After-tax cash flow: $106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $341,467 HARMLS

Property tax history

-30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,395 · -30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.