420 Harrison St · Orchard, NE 68764

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1975 0.31 ac lot $52/sqft · 53% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful solid custom ranch home featuring great natural light, two fireplaces, and convenient main floor laundry. This home offers 3 bathrooms, spacious bedrooms, including a non-conforming 3rd bedroom in the fully finished basement for additional living space. All appliances stay. Enjoy the large, deep attached garage along with a backyard storage shed for extra storage. Listing agent is related seller.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-99/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#336 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Antelope County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Antelope County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $130k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $103,698 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,806
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -53.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $26,939
• Equity at exit: $71,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $83,076
• Equity at exit: $120,487

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68764

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,099/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,047

Max offer price $128,542

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $29	+0% $-8	+5% $-45	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-90	-5% $-49	+0% $-8	+5% $33	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $25	base $-8	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Wonderful solid custom ranch home featuring great natural light, two fireplaces, and convenient main floor laundry. This home offers 3 bathrooms, spacious bedrooms, including a non-conforming 3rd bedroom in the fully finished basement for additional living space. All appliances stay. Enjoy the large, deep attached garage along with a backyard storage shed for extra storage. Listing agent is related seller.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $130,000 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Wonderful solid custom ranch home featuring great natural light, two fireplaces, and convenient main floor laundry. This home offers 3 bathrooms, spacious bedrooms, including a non-conforming 3rd bedroom in the fully finished basement for additional living space. All appliances stay. Enjoy the large, deep attached garage along with a backyard storage shed for extra storage. Listing agent is related seller.

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $145,000 New 409-char remark

   Show marketing remark (409 chars)

   Wonderful solid custom ranch home featuring great natural light, two fireplaces, and convenient main floor laundry. This home offers 3 bathrooms, spacious bedrooms, including a non-conforming 3rd bedroom in the fully finished basement for additional living space. All appliances stay. Enjoy the large, deep attached garage along with a backyard storage shed for extra storage. Listing agent is related seller.

4. 2003-03-18
   soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,099 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,249 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,150/yr (+$96/mo · 104.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,099
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$996
• − Management: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$566
• After-tax cash flow: $467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Orchard

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #12580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orchard, NE
• Population (ZIP): 748

Population outlook (Antelope County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,898 people
• By 2030: 5,669 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 5,252 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 4,905 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 4,385 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 3,763 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Antelope

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.5) · D 11.5% · R 88.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.0pp · 2024: -76.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.5 2020: R+73.7 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+62.8 2008: R+51.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Current HPI: 181.4241
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+128.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $130,000 GPRMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $145,000 GPRMLS
• 2003-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,099 · +27.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.