204 W Sugarmaple Ln · Pine Ridge, FL 34465

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1986 10,571 sqft lot Est $224k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained one-owner home in wonderful neighborhood. 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1 car garage. Newer A/C with Heat pump newer roof. Recently painted. Eat in Kitchen with all appliances. Living Room Family Room. Peaceful private view in back yard. Desirable neighborhood.

Key facts

• Close to town
• Fenced backyard
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• CLOSE TO TOWN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Concrete driveway; 1 garage space (total 1 parking space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Privacy, vinyl and wood fencing; Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Varied topography; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floor plan; High-speed internet access; Drapes and window coverings; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-365/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Ridge Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 67% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $195k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,954 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
388 W Sugarmaple Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,304 (-5%)	1mo	$192,000	$147	83
241 W Valerian Pl	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	2mo	$219,999	$164	68
377 W Sugarmaple Ln	0.18mi	2/2.5	1,547 (+13%)	4mo	$237,000	$153	64
3635 N Honeylocust Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,326 (-3%)	1mo	$233,000	$176	64
146 W Seymeria Dr	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,170 (-14%)	6mo	$219,000	$187	63
3525 N Burroughs Path	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+2%)	3mo	$223,500	$161	63
2924 N Anthony Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+10%)	2mo	$349,000	$231	56
785 W Toucan Loop	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-9%)	4mo	$225,000	$180	55
605 W Buttonbush Dr	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,184 (-14%)	1mo	$132,000	$111	55
246 W Valerian Pl	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,480 (+8%)	8mo	$230,000	$155	54
3579 N Tamarisk Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+8%)	2mo	$284,400	$193	53
3509 N Honeylocust Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,545 (+13%)	5mo	$195,000	$126	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,508
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-31,564
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34465

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,148/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,708

Max offer price $189,631

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
144 W Sugarmaple Ln Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	21d	1	0.06mi
229 W Casurina Pl Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,399	$0.87	21d	1	0.26mi
3442 N Tamarisk Ave Unit NA Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	21d	1	0.41mi
703 W Sunbird Path Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,700	$1.31	21d	1	0.52mi
3660 N Laurelwood Loop Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	2.5	1543	$1,800	$1.17	21d	1	0.67mi
3263 N Maidencane Dr Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1380	$1,350	$0.98	21d	1	0.88mi
2280 N Hardee Pt Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,700	$1.52	21d	1	0.96mi
877 W Silver Meadow Loop Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,500	$1.53	21d	1	1.01mi
95 S Desoto St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,435	$1.25	21d	1	1.17mi
17 N Davis St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,000	$0.90	21d	1	1.17mi
1240 W Diamond Shore Loop Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1770	$2,900	$1.64	21d	1	1.23mi
23 N Lee St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1416	$1,350	$0.95	21d	1	1.24mi
1281 W Diamond Shore Loop Hernando, FL	2.0	2.0	1686	$3,000	$1.78	21d	1	1.28mi
42 Roosevelt Blvd Unit 1 Beverly Hills, FL	3.0	1.5	1612	$1,449	$0.90	21d	1	1.38mi
95 S Fillmore St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,300	$1.23	21d	1	1.38mi
45 S Jackson St Beverly Hills, FL	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,275	$1.15	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $195,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $199,900
17. 2026-04-28
    price $209,000
18. 2026-04-06
    status Active
19. 2026-03-08
    status Pending
20. 2026-02-07
    listed $215,000 Active
21. 2002-10-15
    soldstatus $72,000
22. 2002-10-14
    soldstatus $72,000 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    Well maintained one-owner home in wonderful neighborhood. 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1 car garage. Newer A/C with Heat pump newer roof. Recently painted. Eat in Kitchen with all appliances. Living Room Family Room. Peaceful private view in back yard. Desirable neighborhood.

23. 2002-07-22
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 2002-07-18
    listed $73,000 273-char remark

    Show marketing remark (273 chars)

    Well maintained one-owner home in wonderful neighborhood. 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1 car garage. Newer A/C with Heat pump newer roof. Recently painted. Eat in Kitchen with all appliances. Living Room Family Room. Peaceful private view in back yard. Desirable neighborhood.

25. 1987-07-01
    soldstatus $64,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,148 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,148
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,514
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,879
• Household income: $54,869
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 334.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.62%
• Current HPI: 279.7183
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+211.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $199,900 RACC
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $209,000 RACC
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-03-08 Pending — RACC
• 2026-02-07 Listed $215,000 RACC
• 2002-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-14 Sold (MLS) $72,000 RACC
• 2002-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-18 Listed $73,000 RACC
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,148 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.