Plan 2457 Plan · Port Orchard, WA 98367

$524,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,457 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Den * Mudroom * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Powder bath * Upstairs laundry room * Classic white painted millwork and doors * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

Key facts

• Loft
• Powder bath
• Mudroom

Tags

• MUDROOM
• POWDER BATH
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LOFT
• SMART THERMOSTAT

🏗️ New construction. The $524,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $653,171.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $439k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $384k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#110 in WA, #2,167 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Kitsap School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 291 in WA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $383,755 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $653,171
• List price: $524,950
• Delta: -19.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6141 Crestner Dr SW #406	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,457 (0%)	2mo	$600,000	$244	97
6004 Trace Dr SW	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,281 (-7%)	1mo	$769,950	$338	77
6043 Trace Dr SW #453	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,758 (+12%)	1mo	$672,950	$244	75
6103 Trace Dr SW	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,758 (+12%)	1mo	$661,800	$240	75
6178 Telford Way SW Lot 412	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,141 (-13%)	2mo	$548,235	$256	71
6114 Lochan Rd SW #370	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,809 (+14%)	1mo	$842,346	$300	66
5733 Trace Dr SW	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,258 (-8%)	1mo	$822,045	$364	65
4360 SW Kerbin Ln #378	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,809 (+14%)	2mo	$739,900	$263	65
5991 Thornhill Ave SW	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,099 (-15%)	2mo	$599,990	$286	60
5980 Thornhill Ave SW	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,099 (-15%)	1mo	$599,990	$286	60
6010 SW Thornhill Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,099 (-15%)	2mo	$654,990	$312	59
4145 SW Bigler Way	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,098 (-15%)	2mo	$814,900	$388	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-205,521
• Equity at exit: $97,390

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-321,561
• Equity at exit: $56,474

Cash invested: $182,888 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98367

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,425
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$816 /mo · $9,798/yr
• Insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $-1,482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,714

Max offer price $438,687

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,031	-5% $-1,257	+0% $-1,482	+5% $-1,708	+10% $-1,934
Rent	-10% $-1,785	-5% $-1,634	+0% $-1,482	+5% $-1,331	+10% $-1,179
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,153	-0.5pp $-1,316	base $-1,482	+0.5pp $-1,652	+1.0pp $-1,824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $163,293
• Closing costs: $19,595
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5924 Trace Dr SW Port Orchard, WA	4.0	4.0	2949	$4,200	$1.42	14d	1	0.14mi
6982 Marymac Dr SW Port Orchard, WA	4.0	2.0	2336	$3,600	$1.54	21d	1	0.84mi
4467 Hibiscus Cir SW Port Orchard, WA	4.0	3.0	2700	$3,550	$1.31	44d	1	1.04mi
4357 Wandering Way Port Orchard, WA	4.0	3.0	2758	$3,495	$1.27	14d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $524,950 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $524,950 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $524,950 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $524,950 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $524,950 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $524,950 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $524,950 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $524,950 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $524,950 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $524,950 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $524,950 Active 184 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $524,950 Active 183 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $524,950 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $524,950 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $524,950 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $524,950 Active 179 DOM
17. 2026-03-28
    price $524,950 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    * Den * Mudroom * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Powder bath * Upstairs laundry room * Classic white painted millwork and doors * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

18. 2026-02-12
    price $544,950 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    * Den * Mudroom * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Powder bath * Upstairs laundry room * Classic white painted millwork and doors * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

19. 2026-02-05
    price $539,950 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    * Den * Mudroom * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Powder bath * Upstairs laundry room * Classic white painted millwork and doors * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

20. 2026-01-15
    price $559,950 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    * Den * Mudroom * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Powder bath * Upstairs laundry room * Classic white painted millwork and doors * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

21. 2025-12-02
    listed $579,950 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    * Den * Mudroom * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Powder bath * Upstairs laundry room * Classic white painted millwork and doors * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Loft * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Community park * Trails * Outdoor recreation nearby * Near Puget Sound * Golf course living

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,588
• − Property taxes: −$9,798
• − Insurance: −$3,266
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,684
• − Management: −$3,684
• − Depreciation: −$19,001
• Taxable loss: −$29,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,193
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5308160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $62,824
• Composite: 52.31/100
• National rank: #3445
• State rank: #71 of 291 in WA

Livability — Port Orchard

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #2167

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Orchard, WA
• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• City population: 68,721
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,756
• Household income: $115,482
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 595.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.02%
• Current HPI: 351.671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $524,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $544,950 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $539,950 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $559,950 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Listed $579,950 Zillow