204 NW Lincoln St · Dothan, AL 36303

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1973 0.42 ac lot $74/sqft · 12% below area Est $109k · 26% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity for anyone looking to add to their current portfolio.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 159 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 4.4% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.35%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,737
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -26.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Young America Dr	0.28mi	3/0.5	1,050 (-3%)	0mo	$52,250	$50	80
322 NW Young America Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,162 (+8%)	21mo	$127,000	$109	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $24,293
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $69,090
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36303

• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $534/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $630

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $630	-5% $608	+0% $585	+5% $563	+10% $540
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $531	+0% $585	+5% $639	+10% $693
Rate	-1.0pp $625	-0.5pp $606	base $585	+0.5pp $564	+1.0pp $543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 138 DOM
18. 2026-04-11
    price $80,000 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Great investment opportunity for anyone looking to add to their current portfolio.

19. 2026-01-13
    listed $89,000 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    Great investment opportunity for anyone looking to add to their current portfolio.

20. 2023-08-30
    status Active
21. 2023-08-09
    historical
22. 2023-07-14
    price $95,000
23. 2023-06-01
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$534
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $5,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• County: Houston County · 47,783 people
• City population: 47,783
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• Population (ZIP): 30,173
• Household income: $54,147
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 41% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.35%
• Current HPI: 182.6482
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dothan, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $80,000 SAMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $89,000 SAMLS
• 2023-08-30 Relisted — SAMLS
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — SAMLS
• 2023-07-14 Price Changed $95,000 SAMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $110,000 SAMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $534 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.