18 Merrick Rd · Shirley, NY 11967

$569,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1951 5,227 sqft lot Est $588k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch with 7 rooms 3 beds and 1 bath located in William Floyd schools. Close to shopping, transportation and major roadways

Key facts

• Working fireplace
• Unfurnished basement
• Separate entrance

Tags

• WORKING FIREPLACE
• UNFURNISHED BASEMENT
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• SMITHS POINT BEACH
• WILLIAM FLOYD SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Living area reported by appraiser
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement space for utilities/laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $570k).
• Recommended offer: $561k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($561k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $312k; list at $570k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $561,449 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $588,432
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Rockledge Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-3%)	3mo	$520,000	$300	74
17 Ostend Cir	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,808 (+1%)	2mo	$510,000	$282	65
41 Lama Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+0%)	1mo	$630,000	$350	63
498 A William Floyd Pkwy	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-7%)	2mo	$470,000	$283	58
22 Ridge Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	2,015 (+12%)	9mo	$660,000	$328	57
16 Flintlock Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-11%)	5mo	$535,000	$336	56
11 Happy Acres Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,722 (-4%)	12mo	$630,000	$366	53
48 Arrowhead Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-11%)	16mo	$575,000	$359	43
80 Heston Rd	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,535 (-14%)	5mo	$560,000	$365	42
41 Heston Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,641 (-8%)	21mo	$537,500	$328	41
55 Lama Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,998 (+11%)	8mo	$615,000	$308	30
18 Probst Dr	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,560 (-13%)	22mo	$430,000	$276	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-3,641
• Equity at exit: $84,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $111,009
• Equity at exit: $49,283

Cash invested: $159,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$515 /mo · $6,180/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $1,393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,736

Max offer price $569,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,716	-5% $1,555	+0% $1,393	+5% $1,232	+10% $1,071
Rent	-10% $880	-5% $1,137	+0% $1,393	+5% $1,650	+10% $1,907
Rate	-1.0pp $1,680	-0.5pp $1,538	base $1,393	+0.5pp $1,246	+1.0pp $1,095

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,500
• Closing costs: $17,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	3d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $569,999 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $569,999 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $569,999 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $569,999 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $569,999 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $569,999 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $569,999 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $569,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $569,999 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $569,999 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $569,999 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $569,999 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $569,999 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 628-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $569,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,180 · $515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,906 · $659/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,727/yr (+$144/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,929
• − Property taxes: −$6,180
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,240
• − Management: −$6,240
• − Depreciation: −$16,582
• Taxable income: $7,980
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,915
• After-tax cash flow: $14,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+570.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $569,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listed $570,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Sold (MLS) $312,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $332,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-08 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,180 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.