12105 Dandelion Ave · Potomac Park, MD 21502

$109,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1944 4,400 sqft lot Est $116k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 12105 Dandelion Avenue in Cumberland—a charming home full of opportunity and character. This two-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath property offers a warm and inviting layout, highlighted by a beautiful sunroom that fills the space with natural light—perfect for relaxing mornings or cozy evenings. The home also features a convenient one-car garage and a fully fenced backyard, ideal for pets, gardening, or outdoor entertaining. With solid bones and plenty of potential, this property is a wonderful chance to add your personal touch and make it truly your own. A little updating will go a long way in transforming this house into a cozy home.

Key facts

• One car garage
• Sunroom
• 4,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• SUNROOM
• ONE CAR GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#343 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $757 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,447 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,560
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12105 Dandelion Ave	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,080 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$88	97
13529 Mcmullen Hwy SW	0.31mi	2/1.0	980 (-9%)	11mo	$42,500	$43	61
12013 Kite Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,218 (+13%)	7mo	$129,840	$107	61
12204 Fall Ave	0.30mi	2/1.5	936 (-13%)	6mo	$115,000	$123	57
13517 Mcmullen Hwy SW	0.29mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	22mo	$65,000	$56	50
12618 Mahogany St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-4%)	5mo	$190,000	$183	47
12707 N Cresap St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+8%)	18mo	$154,900	$132	43
12710 Mcmullen Hwy SW	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-7%)	18mo	$165,000	$164	40
12817 Bowling St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,236 (+14%)	9mo	$130,000	$105	35
12610 Bowling St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,221 (+13%)	9mo	$104,000	$85	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,011
• Equity at exit: $16,327

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $37,160
• Equity at exit: $9,468

Cash invested: $30,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $955/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $109,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $188	+0% $157	+5% $126	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $114	+0% $157	+5% $200	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $185	base $157	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,375
• Closing costs: $3,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12916 N Cresap St Cumberland, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	670	$960	$1.43	44d	4	0.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $109,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,134
• − Property taxes: −$955
• − Insurance: −$548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$3,185
• Taxable income: $110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26
• After-tax cash flow: $1,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Potomac Park

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #18498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Potomac Park, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $109,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $955 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.