2445 Grove Ln · Brownsville, TX 78526

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,473 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2022 5,695 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A MUST SEE . .. Beautiful 3BR/2BA home with a 2-car garage in a desirable subdivision! Built just 3 years ago, this move-in-ready home features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, natural gas cooktop and oven, tankless water heater, tile flooring throughout main areas, and carpet in the bedrooms. Includes refrigerator, dishwasher, LG washer and dryer, epoxy garage floor, front-yard sprinkler system, gutters, alarm sensors on front and back doors, and a built-in network panel for internet/Wi-Fi management. Home also comes with polycarbonate hurricane storm shutters (not installed). Modern, energy-efficient, and loaded with upgrades!

Key facts

• Epoxy garage floor
• Natural gas cooktop
• Tile flooring

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL GAS COOKTOP
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• TILE FLOORING
• EPOXY GARAGE FLOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; House; Located in Palo Alto Groves subdivision
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cable available

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke detectors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Olmito El (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 575 students, 69% FRL); Resaca Middle (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 857 students, 77% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 43% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 413 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,744 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,128
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-60,623
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78526

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 413
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,477/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $237,978

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2373 Grove Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,500	$1.70	21d	1	0.12mi
2153 Grove Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1846	$1,950	$1.06	21d	1	0.19mi
2161 Grove Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,050	$1.78	44d	1	0.21mi
6283 Pecos River St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	14d	1	0.72mi
6973 Austrian Pne Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1406	$1,800	$1.28	44d	1	0.84mi
6053 Blanco River St Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,550	$1.42	14d	1	0.85mi
6992 Austrian Pne Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,900	$1.58	21d	1	0.89mi
7029 Austrian Pne Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	21d	1	0.90mi
6919 Blue Spruce St Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,750	$1.21	44d	1	0.96mi
6654 Pino Azul Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,900	$1.33	44d	1	1.08mi
1930 Castillo St Olmito, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,400	$1.47	21d	1	1.16mi
1930 Castellano Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	1.16mi
7137 Calles Ave Olmito, TX	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,400	$1.37	14d	1	1.29mi
6705 Garden Woods Ave Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,550	$1.15	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 652-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $265,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,477 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$373/yr (+$31/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,477
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,537
• After-tax cash flow: $-298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,012
• Household income: $70,565
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 45% White 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 79% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 220.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $265,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+101.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,477 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.