3722/3724 Walnut Creek Rd · Marshall, NC 28753

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · Manufactured public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1973 0.97 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity. 2 homes on site. Main home is 3 bed 2 bath second home is 1 bed 1 bath. Great location close to schools shopping and recreation. Homes sold as is. Owner is licensed NC Broker.

Key facts

• 2 homes on site
• 0.97 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• 2 HOMES ON SITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($276/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.1% in Marshall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #55 of 178 in NC (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison High School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #270 of 535 statewide, top 52%, 414 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 209 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $280k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,181 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $153,849
• Equity at exit: $252,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $451,688
• Equity at exit: $543,978

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28753

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $590/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,153

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-10-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-08
   listed $280,000 Active
3. 2025-04-08
   listed $280,000 Active
4. 2002-03-20
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $590 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,296 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,706/yr (+$142/mo · 289.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 100% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥99°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$590
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $1,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702820
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,050
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2774
• State rank: #55 of 178 in NC

Livability — Marshall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #9259

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,778

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,646 people
• By 2030: 21,839 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 22,031 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 22,050 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 22,327 · +3.1%
• By 2100: 21,365 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.5% · R 61.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.6pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+9.1 2008: R+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.22%
• Current HPI: 305.7339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+330.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Listed $280,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Listed $280,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $590 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.