74711 Dillon Rd #585 · Sky Valley, CA 92241

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1989 2,900 sqft lot $78/sqft · 19% below area Est $129k · 19% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to family friendly Sky Valley Resort! This 2-bedroom 2 bath home is offered furnished! This is one of the most desirable lots with a low monthly space rent of 1,275.00. You have a majestic view of the open Desert for miles and miles and a breathtaking mountain view from your back porch/yard with a gate for open access to enjoy serene Desert hiking! Located close to the main pool. A low monthly space rent of 1,203.00. Fully covered carport, a full length covered porch. Enjoy the rare and healing geo-thermal mineral water in the 13 pools and spas, pickleball, tennis, basketball, horseshoes, shuffleboard, movie night, dog park, Chapel, Cafe, weekly farmers market, clubhouse and more. A short drive from Palm Springs, fine dining and shopping on El Paseo, music festivals, art festivals, Acrisure arena, PGA golf tournaments, tennis tournaments and more! This is a perfect full-time home, or warm Winter getaway!

Key facts

• Majestic view
• Close to main pool
• 2,900 sq ft lot

Tags

• MAJESTIC VIEW
• BREATHTAKING MOUNTAIN VIEW
• FULLY COVERED CARPORT
• FULL LENGTH COVERED PORCH
• CLOSE TO MAIN POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 9.6% in Sky Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,041 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.18%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,039
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -18.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74711 Dillon Rd #545	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$105,000	$78	82
74711 Dillon Rd #385	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	16mo	$85,000	$63	81
74711 Dillon Rd #507	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$147,500	$118	80
74711 Dillon Rd #614	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	6mo	$70,000	$56	78
74711 Dillon #373	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	14mo	$120,000	$96	72
74711 Dillon Rd #635	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (+11%)	2mo	$130,000	$87	69
74711 Dillon Rd #534	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	4mo	$82,000	$71	67
74711 Dillon Rd #599	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	1mo	$115,000	$100	64
74711 Dillon Rd #389	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+12%)	9mo	$158,000	$104	61
74711 Dillon Rd #511	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	18mo	$115,000	$100	56
74711 Dillon Rd #427	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	14mo	$150,000	$130	53
74711 Dillon Rd #421	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (-14%)	4mo	$135,000	$117	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $48,770
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $127,089
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92241

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $350/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,033

Break-even live

Break-even rent $789

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to family friendly Sky Valley Resort! This 2-bedroom 2 bath home is offered furnished! This is one of the most desirable lots with a low monthly space rent of 1,275.00. You have a majestic view of the open Desert for miles and miles and a breathtaking mountain view from your back porch/yard with a gate for open access to enjoy serene Desert hiking! Located close to the main pool. A low monthly space rent of 1,203.00. Fully covered carport, a full length covered porch. Enjoy the rare and healing geo-thermal mineral water in the 13 pools and spas, pickleball, tennis, basketball, horseshoes, shuffleboard, movie night, dog park, Chapel, Cafe, weekly farmers market, clubhouse and more. A short drive from Palm Springs, fine dining and shopping on El Paseo, music festivals, art festivals, Acrisure arena, PGA golf tournaments, tennis tournaments and more! This is a perfect full-time home, or warm Winter getaway!

2. 2026-01-08
   listed $105,000 Active 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to family friendly Sky Valley Resort! This 2-bedroom 2 bath home is offered furnished! This is one of the most desirable lots with a low monthly space rent of 1,275.00. You have a majestic view of the open Desert for miles and miles and a breathtaking mountain view from your back porch/yard with a gate for open access to enjoy serene Desert hiking! Located close to the main pool. A low monthly space rent of 1,203.00. Fully covered carport, a full length covered porch. Enjoy the rare and healing geo-thermal mineral water in the 13 pools and spas, pickleball, tennis, basketball, horseshoes, shuffleboard, movie night, dog park, Chapel, Cafe, weekly farmers market, clubhouse and more. A short drive from Palm Springs, fine dining and shopping on El Paseo, music festivals, art festivals, Acrisure arena, PGA golf tournaments, tennis tournaments and more! This is a perfect full-time home, or warm Winter getaway!

3. 2025-11-11
   historical
4. 2025-02-10
   listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $350 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$448/yr (+$37/mo · 128.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$350
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $11,330
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,719
• After-tax cash flow: $9,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sky Valley

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #25108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sky Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,624

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
• Current HPI: 400.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $105,000 GPSMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $119,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $350 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.