430 County Road 463 · Eastland, TX 76448

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2012 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for an affordable lake house on Lake Leon that is fully furnished and ready to move in to, here it is! This 2012 single wide has 1216 sq ft, three bedrooms and two full baths and comes with everything shown in the pictures. This home is immaculate and looks like it has never been lived in. Outside is a newly built covered patio for entertaining and a well built stairway down to the waterfront fishing dock. There is also a covered metal porch with ramps on both the front and back doors. This property is on the west side river channel and still has water at the dock, even when the lake is very low. The lake is full again, and you'll be wishing you were sitting under this covered patio watching the beautiful sunsets. Don't miss out on this one! No HOA to contend with!

Key facts

• Covered metal porch
• No hoa
• Fully furnished

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• NEWLY BUILT COVERED PATIO
• WATERFRONT FISHING DOCK
• COVERED METAL PORCH
• WEST SIDE RIVER CHANNEL
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Eastland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#104 in TX, #3,483 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Eastland ISD (town): math 45% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #349 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Eastland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eastland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,692
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,100
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76448

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $140,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $150,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    If you're looking for an affordable lake house on Lake Leon that is fully furnished and ready to move in to, here it is! This 2012 single wide has 1216 sq ft, three bedrooms and two full baths and comes with everything shown in the pictures. This home is immaculate and looks like it has never been lived in. Outside is a newly built covered patio for entertaining and a well built stairway down to the waterfront fishing dock. There is also a covered metal porch with ramps on both the front and back doors. This property is on the west side river channel and still has water at the dock, even when the lake is very low. The lake is full again, and you'll be wishing you were sitting under this covered patio watching the beautiful sunsets. Don't miss out on this one! No HOA to contend with!

17. 2026-03-31
    price $160,000 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    If you're looking for an affordable lake house on Lake Leon that is fully furnished and ready to move in to, here it is! This 2012 single wide has 1216 sq ft, three bedrooms and two full baths and comes with everything shown in the pictures. This home is immaculate and looks like it has never been lived in. Outside is a newly built covered patio for entertaining and a well built stairway down to the waterfront fishing dock. There is also a covered metal porch with ramps on both the front and back doors. This property is on the west side river channel and still has water at the dock, even when the lake is very low. The lake is full again, and you'll be wishing you were sitting under this covered patio watching the beautiful sunsets. Don't miss out on this one! No HOA to contend with!

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $180,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    If you're looking for an affordable lake house on Lake Leon that is fully furnished and ready to move in to, here it is! This 2012 single wide has 1216 sq ft, three bedrooms and two full baths and comes with everything shown in the pictures. This home is immaculate and looks like it has never been lived in. Outside is a newly built covered patio for entertaining and a well built stairway down to the waterfront fishing dock. There is also a covered metal porch with ramps on both the front and back doors. This property is on the west side river channel and still has water at the dock, even when the lake is very low. The lake is full again, and you'll be wishing you were sitting under this covered patio watching the beautiful sunsets. Don't miss out on this one! No HOA to contend with!

19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-06-23
    price $150,000
21. 2025-05-20
    price $160,000
22. 2025-04-22
    price $175,000
23. 2025-04-02
    price $190,000
24. 2025-02-25
    listed $200,000 Active
25. 2024-12-31
    historical
26. 2024-10-25
    price $175,000
27. 2024-09-03
    price $200,000
28. 2024-09-03
    status Active
29. 2024-08-31
    historical
30. 2024-03-11
    price $220,000
31. 2024-01-19
    status Active
32. 2024-01-18
    historical
33. 2023-07-18
    listed $240,000 Active
34. 2020-10-13
    soldstatus
35. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus Sold
36. 2020-09-23
    status Pending
37. 2020-08-24
    historical Active Option Contract
38. 2020-07-20
    listed $70,000 Active
39. 2017-07-27
    soldstatus
40. 2017-07-25
    soldstatus Sold
41. 2017-07-07
    status Pending
42. 2016-09-19
    status Active
43. 2016-09-02
    historical
44. 2015-12-30
    price $55,000
45. 2015-09-08
    listed $63,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,104/yr (+$92/mo · 75.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$6
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1
• After-tax cash flow: $2,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817960
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $35,347
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4894
• State rank: #349 of 826 in TX

Livability — Eastland

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #3483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,920

Population outlook (Eastland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,433 people
• By 2030: 16,908 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 15,855 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 14,906 · -14.5%
• By 2075: 12,843 · -26.3%
• By 2100: 10,344 · -40.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 21% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Eastland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.0% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -59.8pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.4 2016: R+75.4 2012: R+68.9 2008: R+59.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.60%
• Current HPI: 190.0993
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+138.1% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2024-01-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-01-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-07-18 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2020-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-09-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-08-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2020-07-20 Listed $70,000 NTREIS
• 2017-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-07-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-09-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2016-09-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-12-30 Price Changed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2015-09-08 Listed $63,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.