240 Katy-Win Rd · Johnson, VT 05656

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1979

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand-new single-wide manufactured home (2 bedrooms/2 baths, 869 sq ft) to be placed in Katy-Win Mobile Home Development on a leased lot in the quaint village of Johnson, VT. Enjoy comfortable single-level living with a smart, efficient layout and bright, welcoming living space. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and workspace with an easy flow into the dining area—great for everyday living and casual entertaining. Two bedrooms and two full baths provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or extra privacy. A standout feature: this home is a Zero Energy Ready Home (ZERH), built with advanced energy-efficiency measures designed to reduce energy use and enhance year-round comfort com

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Listed 28 days

Tags

• ZERO ENERGY READY HOME
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community/common acreage (association amenity)

Exterior

• Utilities: Community water; Community sewer; 100 amp electric service; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Telephone available
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile single-wide; Pre-construction status; Shingle - architectural roof
• Construction: Clayton mobile home (Gem Topaz model); Vinyl siding and vinyl exterior; Fiberglass batt insulation; Surveyed
• Exterior features: Leased lot; Dirt driveway; Mobile home park location (Katy-Win Mobile Home Park); Mobile is anchored

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level); Second bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air / hot air system
• Interior features: Four total rooms; Master bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#114 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Zoned schools: Johnson Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 192 statewide, top 77%, 217 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Lamoille County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamoille County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $135k implies a 2148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $132,876 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $41,272
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Katy Win East Rd	0.14mi	3/1.5	952 (+2%)	10mo	$42,000	$44	83
79 Katy Win W	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	873 (-7%)	1mo	$37,000	$42	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,773
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,953
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05656

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Gihon River Ct Johnson, VT	2.0	1.0	925	$1,400	$1.51	43d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $134,900 Active
17. 2023-11-14
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$67
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16
• After-tax cash flow: $2,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Johnson

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #24027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson, VT
• Population (ZIP): 3,475

Population outlook (Lamoille County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,543 people
• By 2030: 27,035 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 27,643 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 27,674 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 27,012 · +1.8%
• By 2100: 24,175 · -8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: German 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamoille

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.8) · D 66.3% · R 30.5% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 42.6pp · 2024: 35.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.8 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+31.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.53%
• Current HPI: 281.5085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2148.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $134,900 PrimeMLS
• 2023-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $158 · +20.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.