9434 N Athenia Dr · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,617 sqft · Land · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 0.29 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

Key facts

• Dishwasher
• Range with hood
• Cathedral ceiling

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• RANGE WITH HOOD
• DISHWASHER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned PDR
• Financial info: No investor or income/expense data provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction; Stucco exterior; Block and slab foundation
• Construction: Stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Paved road frontage on a county road; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Laminate countertops; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Citrus Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 19 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $250k implies a 1215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,884 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.77%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-34,049
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,722
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,848

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8755 N Nobleton Way Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	21d	1	0.62mi
9924 N Country Club Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1473	$1,795	$1.22	21d	1	0.96mi
316 W Wason St Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1985	$2,200	$1.11	21d	1	1.19mi
9065 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,795	$1.19	21d	1	1.20mi
9066 N Akola Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	1.23mi
572 W Bluster Pl Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	21d	1	1.30mi
754 W Deacon Pl Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,800	$1.24	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $249,900 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $244,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-05-15
   listed $244,900 Active
6. 2024-05-24
   soldstatus $19,000
7. 2024-05-17
   soldstatus $19,000 Closed 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

8. 2024-05-17
   soldstatus $19,000 Closed 118-char remark

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

9. 2024-05-17
   soldstatus $19,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (118 chars)

   This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

10. 2024-05-17
    soldstatus $19,000

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

11. 2024-04-23
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

12. 2024-04-23
    status Pending 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

13. 2024-04-23
    status Pending 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

14. 2024-03-12
    listed $19,000 Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

15. 2024-03-12
    listed $19,000 Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

16. 2024-03-12
    listed $19,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

17. 2024-03-12
    listed $19,000

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    This is a great oversized corner lot to build your dream home. Lots of privacy. Not far from the famous Rainbow River.

18. 2023-12-01
    historical
19. 2023-12-01
    historical
20. 2023-07-11
    price $14,000
21. 2023-07-11
    price $14,000
22. 2021-09-02
    status Active
23. 2021-09-01
    historical
24. 2021-08-31
    listed $17,000 Active
25. 2021-08-31
    historical
26. 2020-09-29
    historical
27. 2020-09-09
    listed $17,000 Active
28. 2020-09-09
    listed $17,000
29. 2019-11-11
    historical
30. 2019-11-11
    historical
31. 2019-11-11
    historical
32. 2019-11-11
    historical
33. 2019-06-21
    historical
34. 2018-06-06
    historical
35. 2018-01-23
    listed $20,000
36. 2018-01-23
    listed $20,000
37. 2014-01-08
    listed $25,000
38. 2013-07-25
    listed $14,000
39. 2013-07-22
    listed $29,000
40. 2013-07-22
    historical
41. 2013-07-22
    listed $29,000
42. 2012-08-10
    listed $29,000
43. 2011-12-30
    historical
44. 2010-05-21
    listed $30,000
45. 2010-05-21
    listed $30,000
46. 2005-12-14
    historical
47. 2005-06-14
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,074 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,530/yr (+$128/mo · 281.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$748
• After-tax cash flow: $1,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+389.8% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $244,900 RACC
• 2024-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-17 Sold (MLS) $19,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-05-17 Sold (MLS) $19,000 RACC
• 2024-05-17 Sold (MLS) $19,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Sold (MLS) $19,000 HCAR
• 2024-04-23 Pending — RACC
• 2024-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Pending — HCAR
• 2024-03-12 Listed $19,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2024-03-12 Listed $19,000 RACC
• 2024-03-12 Listed $19,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-12 Listed $19,000 HCAR
• 2023-12-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-01 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $14,000 HCAR
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $14,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-01 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2021-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-31 Listed $17,000 HCAR
• 2020-09-29 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2020-09-09 Listed $17,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-09 Listed $17,000 HCAR
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2019-06-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-23 Listed $20,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-23 Listed $20,000 HCAR
• 2014-01-08 Listed $25,000 HCAR
• 2013-07-25 Listed $14,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-22 Listed $29,000 HCAR
• 2013-07-22 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2013-07-22 Listed $29,000 HCAR
• 2012-08-10 Listed $29,000 HCAR
• 2011-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-21 Listed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-21 Listed $30,000 HCAR
• 2005-12-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-14 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+24.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +32.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.