605 Topeka Ave · Lincolnville, KS 66858

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1910 10,413 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Dirt road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown; Built area above grade: 1,072
• Exterior features: No exterior features listed; No fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#485 in KS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Centre (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 280 in KS (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.50%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $46,389
• Equity at exit: $31,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.89×
• Total profit: $112,057
• Equity at exit: $59,954

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66858

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $493/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $374

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $503	-5% $491	+0% $478	+5% $465	+10% $452
Rent	-10% $400	-5% $439	+0% $478	+5% $516	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $489	base $478	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$493
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$940
• − Management: −$940
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,277
• After-tax cash flow: $4,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centre
• NCES district ID: 2008940
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,448
• Composite: 32.24/100
• National rank: #10940
• State rank: #123 of 280 in KS

Livability — Lincolnville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #20464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincolnville, KS
• Population (ZIP): 404

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,315 people
• By 2030: 10,852 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 9,989 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 9,375 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 8,969 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 9,019 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.3% · R 73.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+48.8 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+46.5 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Current HPI: 259.4756
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $45,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $493 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.