118 Croton Rd · Winter Haven, FL 33880

$100,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1996 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own this 3 Bedroom 2 Bath mobile home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Added storage
• Quiet setting

Tags

• QUIET SETTING
• EASY ACCESS
• ADDED STORAGE
• FUTURE POSSIBILITIES
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: Fixer; Lot size approximately 0.39 acres (about 50 x 134, asphalt road); Total living area reported as 1,152
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; No water source listed
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; Facing East; One story; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Recycled/composite flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $100k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.13%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,175
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,465
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
547 Snively Ave Eloise, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$600	$0.55	23d	1	0.66mi
2374 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	1320	$1,700	$1.29	23d	1	1.03mi
2312 Isle Royale Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,499	$1.17	3d	1	1.16mi
900 Ave Z SE Apt C6 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	23d	1	1.22mi
2001 San Marcos Dr SE #11 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,325	$1.38	14d	1	1.23mi
1800 3rd Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	714	$1,400	$1.96	23d	1	1.26mi
1800 3rd Ct SE Apt E Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	714	$1,400	$1.96	23d	1	1.26mi
2200 Clover Ridge Ct Eagle Lake, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	764	$1,350	$1.77	3d	4	1.27mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-05
   remarks 564-char remark
2. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $100,000 Pending 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   status Active
8. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
9. 2026-04-16
   listed $100,000 Active
10. 2025-01-02
    status Active
11. 2024-12-31
    historical
12. 2024-09-10
    status Active
13. 2024-08-31
    historical
14. 2024-05-28
    price $120,000
15. 2024-03-09
    listed $135,000 Active
16. 2015-08-14
    soldstatus $12,000 Sold 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 Bedroom 2 Bath mobile home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping.

17. 2015-07-08
    status Pending 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 Bedroom 2 Bath mobile home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping.

18. 2015-07-08
    listed $12,000 Active 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    Great opportunity to own this 3 Bedroom 2 Bath mobile home. Centrally located to major highways and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$368
• After-tax cash flow: $2,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+733.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-09 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-14 Sold (MLS) $12,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-08 Listed $12,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.