7660 Shadow Lake Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$259,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Townhouse public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2020 4,008 sqft lot $173/sqft · 19% below area Est $322k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the best of Panama City Beach living in this beautiful 3BR/2.5BA corner unit residence in the desirable Hathaway Townhomes on the east end of the city. Just minutes from the Navy Base, Publix Sports Park, and the Gulf's white-sand beaches, this location makes commuting, recreation, and weekend escapes effortless. The bright, open first floor features a welcoming living and dining space with 10' ceilings and a designer lighting package that enhances the airy, spacious ambiance. The kitchen flows seamlessly from this space and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a water filtration system. A convenient half bath is located just off the kitchen. Modern convenience and security are built in with a Smart Home package, including keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot, and a Quolsys touch panel for controlling lighting, doors, thermostat, and more. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private ensuite with a luxurious shower, while two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed bath, providing comfortable and private space for family, guests, or a home office. A one-car garage provides secure parking and storage, with additional driveway space for multiple vehicles. The community offers a resort-style pool and fully maintained landscaping, with the HOA covering personal lawn care, trash service, and upkeep of common areas, giving you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Pets are welcome and short-term rentals are allowed with a one-week minimum, making this townhome a flexible option for both personal living and investment potential.

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Granite countertops
• Garage

Tags

• CORNER UNIT RESIDENCE
• DESIGNER LIGHTING PACKAGE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• SMART HOME PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $221k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,830 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.33%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,660
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -19.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7583 Shadow Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	11mo	$250,000	$167	84
1944 Pointe Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,496 (0%)	8mo	$269,000	$180	80
1602 Annabella'a Way	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,545 (+3%)	11mo	$275,000	$178	55
7670 Solana Ln #49	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+13%)	10mo	$315,000	$186	50
1753 Annabellas Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,596 (+7%)	9mo	$275,000	$172	48
1882 Annabella's Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+9%)	18mo	$249,900	$153	40
1844 Annabellas Dr	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-6%)	21mo	$225,000	$160	38
7653 Solana Ln #8	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,695 (+13%)	12mo	$329,900	$195	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,662
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-48,778
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,123/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	13d	1	0.04mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	20d	1	0.07mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	13d	6	0.39mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	20d	1	0.42mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	20d	1	0.44mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	13d	41	0.51mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	20d	1	0.58mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	20d	1	0.68mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	13d	1	0.68mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	13d	12	0.78mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	13d	2	0.95mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	13d	18	0.96mi
6625 Harbour Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	20d	1	0.97mi
6422 W Highway 98 #1405 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1384	$3,850	$2.78	20d	1	0.98mi
6728 Sunrise Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	966	$1,600	$1.66	13d	1	1.02mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	13d	1	1.02mi
6588 Harbour Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,760	$1.47	20d	1	1.03mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	20d	1	1.19mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.23mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	1.26mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	1.31mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    price $259,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 70 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    price $269,000 1649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1649 chars)

    Enjoy the best of Panama City Beach living in this beautiful 3BR/2.5BA corner unit residence in the desirable Hathaway Townhomes on the east end of the city. Just minutes from the Navy Base, Publix Sports Park, and the Gulf's white-sand beaches, this location makes commuting, recreation, and weekend escapes effortless. The bright, open first floor features a welcoming living and dining space with 10' ceilings and a designer lighting package that enhances the airy, spacious ambiance. The kitchen flows seamlessly from this space and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a water filtration system. A convenient half bath is located just off the kitchen. Modern convenience and security are built in with a Smart Home package, including keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot, and a Quolsys touch panel for controlling lighting, doors, thermostat, and more. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private ensuite with a luxurious shower, while two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed bath, providing comfortable and private space for family, guests, or a home office. A one-car garage provides secure parking and storage, with additional driveway space for multiple vehicles. The community offers a resort-style pool and fully maintained landscaping, with the HOA covering personal lawn care, trash service, and upkeep of common areas, giving you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Pets are welcome and short-term rentals are allowed with a one-week minimum, making this townhome a flexible option for both personal living and investment potential.

20. 2026-04-25
    status Active 1649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1649 chars)

    Enjoy the best of Panama City Beach living in this beautiful 3BR/2.5BA corner unit residence in the desirable Hathaway Townhomes on the east end of the city. Just minutes from the Navy Base, Publix Sports Park, and the Gulf's white-sand beaches, this location makes commuting, recreation, and weekend escapes effortless. The bright, open first floor features a welcoming living and dining space with 10' ceilings and a designer lighting package that enhances the airy, spacious ambiance. The kitchen flows seamlessly from this space and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a water filtration system. A convenient half bath is located just off the kitchen. Modern convenience and security are built in with a Smart Home package, including keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot, and a Quolsys touch panel for controlling lighting, doors, thermostat, and more. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private ensuite with a luxurious shower, while two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed bath, providing comfortable and private space for family, guests, or a home office. A one-car garage provides secure parking and storage, with additional driveway space for multiple vehicles. The community offers a resort-style pool and fully maintained landscaping, with the HOA covering personal lawn care, trash service, and upkeep of common areas, giving you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Pets are welcome and short-term rentals are allowed with a one-week minimum, making this townhome a flexible option for both personal living and investment potential.

21. 2026-04-17
    historical Active Under Contract 1649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1649 chars)

    Enjoy the best of Panama City Beach living in this beautiful 3BR/2.5BA corner unit residence in the desirable Hathaway Townhomes on the east end of the city. Just minutes from the Navy Base, Publix Sports Park, and the Gulf's white-sand beaches, this location makes commuting, recreation, and weekend escapes effortless. The bright, open first floor features a welcoming living and dining space with 10' ceilings and a designer lighting package that enhances the airy, spacious ambiance. The kitchen flows seamlessly from this space and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a water filtration system. A convenient half bath is located just off the kitchen. Modern convenience and security are built in with a Smart Home package, including keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot, and a Quolsys touch panel for controlling lighting, doors, thermostat, and more. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private ensuite with a luxurious shower, while two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed bath, providing comfortable and private space for family, guests, or a home office. A one-car garage provides secure parking and storage, with additional driveway space for multiple vehicles. The community offers a resort-style pool and fully maintained landscaping, with the HOA covering personal lawn care, trash service, and upkeep of common areas, giving you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Pets are welcome and short-term rentals are allowed with a one-week minimum, making this townhome a flexible option for both personal living and investment potential.

22. 2026-03-13
    listed $279,000 Active 1649-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1649 chars)

    Enjoy the best of Panama City Beach living in this beautiful 3BR/2.5BA corner unit residence in the desirable Hathaway Townhomes on the east end of the city. Just minutes from the Navy Base, Publix Sports Park, and the Gulf's white-sand beaches, this location makes commuting, recreation, and weekend escapes effortless. The bright, open first floor features a welcoming living and dining space with 10' ceilings and a designer lighting package that enhances the airy, spacious ambiance. The kitchen flows seamlessly from this space and offers granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinetry, and a water filtration system. A convenient half bath is located just off the kitchen. Modern convenience and security are built in with a Smart Home package, including keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot, and a Quolsys touch panel for controlling lighting, doors, thermostat, and more. Upstairs, the primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private ensuite with a luxurious shower, while two additional bedrooms share a well-appointed bath, providing comfortable and private space for family, guests, or a home office. A one-car garage provides secure parking and storage, with additional driveway space for multiple vehicles. The community offers a resort-style pool and fully maintained landscaping, with the HOA covering personal lawn care, trash service, and upkeep of common areas, giving you a low-maintenance lifestyle. Pets are welcome and short-term rentals are allowed with a one-week minimum, making this townhome a flexible option for both personal living and investment potential.

23. 2020-12-11
    soldstatus $220,850
24. 2020-12-11
    soldstatus $220,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$2,123
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$2,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$647
• After-tax cash flow: $2,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+21.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $269,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $279,000 CPARMLS
• 2020-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $220,850 Public Records
• 2020-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $220,850 Public Records

Property tax history

+56.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,123 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.