202 Johns Dr · Chico, TX 76431

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1950 1.09 ac lot $76/sqft · 51% below area Est $172k · 48% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country Home on Over an Acre – Just 5 Miles from Lake Bridgeport! Welcome to 202 Johns St in Chico, TX – a home full of character and potential, nestled on just over an acre in a quiet country setting. With great bones, a solid foundation, and a well-designed open-concept layout, this 3-bedroom home offers the perfect canvas for someone ready to add their personal touch. One of the standout features is the stunning front porch, complete with classic columns and a spacious layout, ideal for relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings. Imagine sipping your coffee while enjoying views of your expansive property and the serenity that comes with country living. This home sits in an ideal location – 5 miles from the Lake, giving you quick access to boating, fishing, and lakeside fun. Plus, Chico offers a rich historical backdrop with landmarks like the Chico Log Cabin and its historic town center, creating a community full of charm and small-town pride. You'll also enjoy the benefits of being in the renowned Chico ISD, known for its strong academic reputation and tight-knit school community. Whether you're looking for your forever home, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. With space, location, and a layout that’s ready for transformation, this one is sure to shine with the right vision. Don’t miss out – come see the potential for yourself and make this home truly your own!

Key facts

• Ideal location
• Front porch
• Expansive property

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE PROPERTY
• IDEAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.7% in Chico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#508 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Chico ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #424 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.47%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,964
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -47.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Boca Vista Ct	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+1%)	7mo	$264,900	$221	79
204 Pine St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,058 (-11%)	9mo	$175,000	$165	70
304 W Kentucky St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-9%)	7mo	$29,500	$27	60
203 E Sherman St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-12%)	8mo	$49,900	$48	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $24,889
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $72,715
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76431

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $909

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $89,900 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Country Home on Over an Acre – Just 5 Miles from Lake Bridgeport! Welcome to 202 Johns St in Chico, TX – a home full of character and potential, nestled on just over an acre in a quiet country setting. With great bones, a solid foundation, and a well-designed open-concept layout, this 3-bedroom home offers the perfect canvas for someone ready to add their personal touch. One of the standout features is the stunning front porch, complete with classic columns and a spacious layout, ideal for relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings. Imagine sipping your coffee while enjoying views of your expansive property and the serenity that comes with country living. This home sits in an ideal location – 5 miles from the Lake, giving you quick access to boating, fishing, and lakeside fun. Plus, Chico offers a rich historical backdrop with landmarks like the Chico Log Cabin and its historic town center, creating a community full of charm and small-town pride. You'll also enjoy the benefits of being in the renowned Chico ISD, known for its strong academic reputation and tight-knit school community. Whether you're looking for your forever home, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. With space, location, and a layout that’s ready for transformation, this one is sure to shine with the right vision. Don’t miss out – come see the potential for yourself and make this home truly your own!

16. 2026-04-02
    price $94,900 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Country Home on Over an Acre – Just 5 Miles from Lake Bridgeport! Welcome to 202 Johns St in Chico, TX – a home full of character and potential, nestled on just over an acre in a quiet country setting. With great bones, a solid foundation, and a well-designed open-concept layout, this 3-bedroom home offers the perfect canvas for someone ready to add their personal touch. One of the standout features is the stunning front porch, complete with classic columns and a spacious layout, ideal for relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings. Imagine sipping your coffee while enjoying views of your expansive property and the serenity that comes with country living. This home sits in an ideal location – 5 miles from the Lake, giving you quick access to boating, fishing, and lakeside fun. Plus, Chico offers a rich historical backdrop with landmarks like the Chico Log Cabin and its historic town center, creating a community full of charm and small-town pride. You'll also enjoy the benefits of being in the renowned Chico ISD, known for its strong academic reputation and tight-knit school community. Whether you're looking for your forever home, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. With space, location, and a layout that’s ready for transformation, this one is sure to shine with the right vision. Don’t miss out – come see the potential for yourself and make this home truly your own!

17. 2026-02-26
    listed $99,900 Active 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Country Home on Over an Acre – Just 5 Miles from Lake Bridgeport! Welcome to 202 Johns St in Chico, TX – a home full of character and potential, nestled on just over an acre in a quiet country setting. With great bones, a solid foundation, and a well-designed open-concept layout, this 3-bedroom home offers the perfect canvas for someone ready to add their personal touch. One of the standout features is the stunning front porch, complete with classic columns and a spacious layout, ideal for relaxing mornings or peaceful evenings. Imagine sipping your coffee while enjoying views of your expansive property and the serenity that comes with country living. This home sits in an ideal location – 5 miles from the Lake, giving you quick access to boating, fishing, and lakeside fun. Plus, Chico offers a rich historical backdrop with landmarks like the Chico Log Cabin and its historic town center, creating a community full of charm and small-town pride. You'll also enjoy the benefits of being in the renowned Chico ISD, known for its strong academic reputation and tight-knit school community. Whether you're looking for your forever home, a weekend getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes. With space, location, and a layout that’s ready for transformation, this one is sure to shine with the right vision. Don’t miss out – come see the potential for yourself and make this home truly your own!

18. 2025-10-20
    historical
19. 2025-08-12
    price $124,900
20. 2025-08-04
    price $134,400
21. 2025-07-28
    price $134,500
22. 2025-06-24
    listed $134,900 Active
23. 2025-06-23
    historical
24. 2025-06-05
    price $138,900
25. 2025-05-27
    price $144,400
26. 2025-05-16
    price $144,800
27. 2025-04-29
    price $144,900
28. 2025-04-17
    price $148,400
29. 2025-03-13
    listed $149,900 Active
30. 1989-12-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $6,439
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,545
• After-tax cash flow: $5,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chico ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813800
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 33.94/100
• National rank: #5335
• State rank: #424 of 826 in TX

Livability — Chico

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #10078

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chico, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,480

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.62%
• Current HPI: 222.5575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $134,400 NTREIS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $134,500 NTREIS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $134,900 NTREIS
• 2025-06-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $138,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $144,400 NTREIS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $144,800 NTREIS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $144,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $148,400 NTREIS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 1989-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,508 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.