6517 W Yellow Bird Ln · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$450,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2004 5,642 sqft lot Est $466k · at est. $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You MUST see this beautiful, updated single level home in Preserve at Boulder Mountain today! This 3 bedroom with a den has the following fabulous features: Custom paint and vaulted ceilings throughout. Upgraded kitchen with granite countertops and kitchen nook with decorative cutout pony wall. Custom tile throughout and carpet in the bedrooms. The guest bath is easily accessed via both halls on each side of the house. Den has dual glass doors. Master suite has tile flooring, ceiling fan, and picture window. Full bathroom with dual sink vanity and private toilet room. Spacious walk in closet! Backyard features a cozy covered patio with desert landscaping and plenty of room for entertaining. And check out the mountain views! Near hiking and biking trails and plenty of shopping and dining.

Key facts

• 5,642 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 5,642 (assessor); Building area source: Assessor
• Financial info: Current financing: Non-assumable
• HOA & community: Community association with quarterly fee; Association fee covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community playground and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Garage with door opener; Extended-length garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Painted exterior; Tile roof; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Grass in back; Front and back irrigation with auto-timer; Block fencing; City-maintained road access; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Built-in electric oven; Built-in microwave; Reverse osmosis water filtration
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in master bath; Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside; Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-540 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (37.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Terramar Academy of The Arts (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #201 of 1,109 statewide, top 18%, 1,015 students, 13% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $450k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,033 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $465,711
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6503 W Eagle Talon Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,537 (0%)	3mo	$465,000	$303	91
6445 W Yellow Bird Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,537 (0%)	9mo	$488,000	$318	86
6518 W Yellow Bird Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-1%)	13mo	$450,000	$296	82
27415 N 63rd Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,520 (-1%)	4mo	$430,000	$283	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $208,524
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $636,842
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,918/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,494

Max offer price $354,610

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-285	-5% $-413	+0% $-540	+5% $-667	+10% $-795
Rent	-10% $-762	-5% $-651	+0% $-540	+5% $-429	+10% $-318
Rate	-1.0pp $-313	-0.5pp $-426	base $-540	+0.5pp $-657	+1.0pp $-775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6458 W Blue Sky Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2230	$2,095	$0.94	17d	1	0.02mi
27513 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,395	$1.28	17d	1	0.23mi
6418 W Mark Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2201	$3,250	$1.48	45d	1	0.50mi
27383 N 69th Ln Peoria, AZ	4.0	3.0	2084	$2,995	$1.44	14d	1	0.64mi
27383 N 69th Ln Peoria, AZ	4.0	3.0	2084	$2,995	$1.44	9d	1	0.64mi
6991 W Pinnacle Vista Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1989	$2,850	$1.43	17d	1	0.68mi
6964 W Buckhorn Trl Peoria, AZ	4.0	3.0	2084	$2,950	$1.42	14d	1	0.68mi
6999 W Pinnacle Vista Dr Peoria, AZ	4.0	3.0	2084	$2,950	$1.42	1d	1	0.68mi
6972 W Buckhorn Trl Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1989	$2,850	$1.43	4d	1	0.69mi
7297 W Blue Sky Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1974	$3,195	$1.62	17d	1	0.99mi
7297 W Blue Sky Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1974	$3,195	$1.62	9d	1	0.99mi
7117 W Andrea Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	2012	$2,550	$1.27	45d	1	1.04mi
7103 W Jasmine Trl Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1962	$2,700	$1.38	26d	1	1.06mi
7378 W Buckhorn Trl Peoria, AZ	4.0	3.0	2084	$3,000	$1.44	26d	1	1.13mi
6842 W Nadine Way Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.5	2212	$2,515	$1.14	0d	1	1.22mi
6889 W Paso Trl Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,450	$1.32	14d	1	1.24mi
6853 W Remuda Dr Peoria, AZ	4.0	2.0	2162	$2,550	$1.18	17d	1	1.26mi
5511 W Desperado Way Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,695	$1.50	1d	1	1.31mi
6933 W Remuda Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	2161	$2,795	$1.29	26d	1	1.31mi
27424 N 54th Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2104	$2,885	$1.37	3d	1	1.31mi
5432 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2103	$2,900	$1.38	14d	1	1.35mi
5412 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1805	$3,200	$1.77	45d	1	1.40mi
5414 W Straight Arrow Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1760	$4,500	$2.56	45d	1	1.40mi
6424 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1647	$2,195	$1.33	9d	1	1.47mi
6504 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,245	$1.78	6d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $450,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,052/yr (+$88/mo · 54.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$1,918
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,698
• − Management: −$2,698
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$14,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,546
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+260.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $450,000 ARMLS
• 2018-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-26 Sold (MLS) $255,000 ARMLS
• 2018-03-27 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-03-21 Price Changed $255,000 ARMLS
• 2018-03-16 Price Changed $260,000 ARMLS
• 2018-03-15 Price Changed $262,500 ARMLS
• 2018-01-31 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2012-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-31 Sold (MLS) $160,000 ARMLS
• 2011-11-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-11-25 Listed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2011-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records
• 2011-11-14 Sold (MLS) $118,500 ARMLS
• 2011-09-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-09-21 Listed $125,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,918 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.