20398 Birch Dr · Montgomery, TX 77356

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2002 Good condition 9,801 sqft lot $146/sqft · 7% below area Est $165k · 6% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 2002 manufactured home located in Hidden Forest Estates. This home is in great condition and offers a comfortable and functional layout, ideal for a variety of buyers. Situated in Montgomery County, the property provides convenient access to nearby amenities, shopping, and major roadways while maintaining a peaceful residential setting. Perfect opportunity for homeowners or investors seeking an affordable property in a growing area.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Affordable property
• Growing area

Tags

• HIDDEN FOREST ESTATES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• PEACEFUL RESIDENTIAL SETTING
• AFFORDABLE PROPERTY
• GROWING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.50%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,900
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -6.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15443 Forest Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (+2%)	1mo	$164,900	$152	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,980
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $28,609
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $486/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20278 Willow Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,850	$1.66	12d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $155,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Well-maintained 2002 manufactured home located in Hidden Forest Estates. This home is in great condition and offers a comfortable and functional layout, ideal for a variety of buyers. Situated in Montgomery County, the property provides convenient access to nearby amenities, shopping, and major roadways while maintaining a peaceful residential setting. Perfect opportunity for homeowners or investors seeking an affordable property in a growing area.

16. 2026-03-18
    listed $160,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Well-maintained 2002 manufactured home located in Hidden Forest Estates. This home is in great condition and offers a comfortable and functional layout, ideal for a variety of buyers. Situated in Montgomery County, the property provides convenient access to nearby amenities, shopping, and major roadways while maintaining a peaceful residential setting. Perfect opportunity for homeowners or investors seeking an affordable property in a growing area.

17. 2020-07-16
    soldstatus Sold 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Awesome new Studio Plan, 1000 sq. ft. with Living down stairs with extra 1/2 Bath. Upstairs 2 Bedrooms with 2 Baths and a 2 Car Garage. This Garage is over sized has a drive through front & back garage door, perfect for storage and or a Man-Cave. Home sits on an over sized Lot, roughly 9700 sq ft. in Hidden Forest Estates. Community backs up to the Sam Houston National Forest, community has a Lake and Community Pool. Lots of piece and quiet in this National Forest. Montgomery ISD, no MUD Tax, Very low tax rate 1.99.

18. 2020-06-20
    status Pending, Continue to Show 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Awesome new Studio Plan, 1000 sq. ft. with Living down stairs with extra 1/2 Bath. Upstairs 2 Bedrooms with 2 Baths and a 2 Car Garage. This Garage is over sized has a drive through front & back garage door, perfect for storage and or a Man-Cave. Home sits on an over sized Lot, roughly 9700 sq ft. in Hidden Forest Estates. Community backs up to the Sam Houston National Forest, community has a Lake and Community Pool. Lots of piece and quiet in this National Forest. Montgomery ISD, no MUD Tax, Very low tax rate 1.99.

19. 2020-06-11
    listed $129,900 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Awesome new Studio Plan, 1000 sq. ft. with Living down stairs with extra 1/2 Bath. Upstairs 2 Bedrooms with 2 Baths and a 2 Car Garage. This Garage is over sized has a drive through front & back garage door, perfect for storage and or a Man-Cave. Home sits on an over sized Lot, roughly 9700 sq ft. in Hidden Forest Estates. Community backs up to the Sam Houston National Forest, community has a Lake and Community Pool. Lots of piece and quiet in this National Forest. Montgomery ISD, no MUD Tax, Very low tax rate 1.99.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $486 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,350/yr (+$196/mo · 483.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$486
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $4,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $5,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2002 manufactured home in Hidden Forest Estates offers a comfortable and functional layout, ideal for a variety of buyers. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed and potential for value-adding updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality
• Both Install new window treatments — New curtains can improve the home's aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — New curtains can improve the home's aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2020-07-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-11 Listed $129,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $486 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.