36166 Obsidian Ln · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$234,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,597 sqft · Townhouse · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $147/sqft · 8% below area Est $256k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story townhome optimizes space for peaceful living. The first floor features an open design among the dining room, kitchen and family room for a contemporary edge, while the attached covered patio is fantastic for indoor-outdoor entertaining. The second level features all three bedrooms, including the impressive owner's suite with a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Garage

Tags

• ATTACHED COVERED PATIO
• INDOOR OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1451 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,193/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 24% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $219,257 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,500
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: -8.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3473 Lapis Lake Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,597 (0%)	15mo	$249,100	$156	79
3469 Lapis Lake Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,597 (0%)	16mo	$252,000	$158	78
36178 Obsidian Ln	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,807 (+13%)	4mo	$257,240	$142	74
3361 Lapis Lk	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,807 (+13%)	11mo	$278,750	$154	65
3440 Lapis Lake Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+10%)	15mo	$243,800	$139	63
3465 Lapis Lake Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+10%)	15mo	$259,300	$147	63
3477 Lapis Lake Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+10%)	15mo	$249,900	$142	62
3481 Lapis Lake Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,807 (+13%)	15mo	$284,000	$157	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-37,582
• Equity at exit: $35,038

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-48,552
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active
• Months of supply: 240.0 mo (0%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $252,240 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 13 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 1451
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,525/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $234,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $189	+0% $108	+5% $27	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $22	+0% $108	+5% $195	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $168	base $108	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36162 Obsidian Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,200	$1.25	10d	1	0.03mi
36206 Obsidian Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,100	$1.16	38d	1	0.06mi
3258 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$1,990	$1.10	10d	1	0.09mi
3272 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,000	$1.14	10d	1	0.11mi
3328 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$1,850	$1.16	90d	1	0.12mi
3346 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$1,950	$1.11	134d	1	0.12mi
3385 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	3.0	1807	$2,100	$1.16	85d	1	0.13mi
3385 Lapis Lake Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$1,975	$1.09	72d	1	0.13mi
36630 Chancey Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,200	$1.36	53d	1	0.61mi
35890 Ellsworth Pl Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,400	$1.31	6d	1	0.66mi
35759 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,200	$1.39	10d	1	0.66mi
36100 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,395	$1.51	158d	1	0.78mi
4111 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	1216	$2,195	$1.81	144d	1	0.81mi
36171 Sunflower Hill Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,450	$1.57	152d	1	0.84mi
4235 Ryals Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	2000	$2,250	$1.12	152d	1	0.99mi
2387 Bender Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.99mi
3537 Zephyr Preserve Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	55d	1	0.99mi
3650 Zephyr Preserve Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	72d	1	1.00mi
35227 Brienne St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,940	$1.29	99d	1	1.00mi
35766 Warwick Croft Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$2,015	$1.98	1d	24	1.01mi
3619 Zephyr Preserve Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	90d	1	1.02mi
3619 Zephyr Preserve Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	10d	1	1.02mi
1771 Lanier Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,499	$1.34	119d	1	1.12mi
34990 Gravelly Dr Unit Labs Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,350	$1.26	75d	1	1.19mi
35077 Ackley Trce Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	158d	1	1.20mi
2493 Lanier Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,450	$1.26	90d	1	1.21mi
2493 Lanier Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,299	$1.19	77d	1	1.21mi
2493 Lanier Rd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,450	$1.26	10d	1	1.21mi
35029 Brackett Bnd Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,400	$1.24	152d	1	1.27mi
2333 Stratten Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	3.0	2045	$2,400	$1.17	10d	1	1.29mi
37327 Sagemoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	2226	$2,600	$1.17	165d	1	1.32mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	165d	1	1.40mi
34718 Kircher Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1970	$2,600	$1.32	165d	1	1.40mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,550	$1.17	5d	1	1.41mi
34827 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,300	$1.39	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-08-20
   pricedays on market $234,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-08-19
   days on market $234,740 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-08-18
   days on market $234,740 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-08-17
   pricedays on market $234,740 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-08-16
   days on market $234,490 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-08-15
   days on market $234,490 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-08-14
   days on market $234,490 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-08-13
   days on market $234,490 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-08-12
   days on market $234,490 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-08-11
    days on market $234,490 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-08-10
    price $234,490 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-08-10
    days on market $234,240 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $234,240 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $233,990 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-08-06
    days on market $233,740 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-08-05
    days on market $233,740 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-08-04
    days on market $233,740 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-08-03
    days on market $233,740 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-07-31
    days on market $233,740 Active 40 DOM
20. 2026-07-30
    days on market $233,740 Active 38 DOM
21. 2026-07-28
    days on market $233,740 Active 37 DOM
22. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $233,740 Active 35 DOM
23. 2026-06-07
    days on market $247,240 Active 33 DOM
24. 2026-06-04
    days on market $247,240 Active 30 DOM
25. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,240 Active 29 DOM
26. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $247,240 Active 28 DOM
27. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,240 Active 27 DOM
28. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,240 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$3,525
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$2,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $1,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,985–$23,955 screening

This two-story townhome is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can enhance curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School F FL #1,697/2,144 Nat'l #22,904/41,679 Middle Raymond B. Stewart Middle School F FL #453/571 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Zephyrhills High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B