4100 Oak Rail Cir · Bemiss, GA 31605

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1983 0.58 ac lot Est $208k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this great house on half acre lot on the Northside of Valdosta close to Moody AFB. Three bedrooms and two full baths. Lots of cabinets in kitchen. Fireplace with insert in living room. Screen back porch. Large fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Screen back porch
• Close to moody afb
• Lots of cabinets

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• CLOSE TO MOODY AFB
• LOTS OF CABINETS
• FIREPLACE WITH INSERT
• SCREEN BACK PORCH
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R15; Located in the Hidden Hills subdivision; Directions: Bemiss Road, turn right on Studstill, right on Oak Rail

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Wood stove; Heating present
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($123/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Bemiss — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dewar Elementary (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #204 of 1,228 statewide, top 17%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Pine Grove Middle School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #48 of 470 statewide, top 10%, 742 students, 50% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $220k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,106 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3747 Robin Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+12%)	3mo	$211,000	$147	59
3901 Lillian Guest Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+7%)	1mo	$215,000	$157	58
3772 Robin Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+11%)	2mo	$225,000	$158	58
4513 Windward Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,397 (+9%)	0mo	$230,000	$165	55
6206 Bemiss Springs Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+14%)	0mo	$235,900	$162	51
6194 Bemiss Springs Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+14%)	0mo	$239,900	$164	51
6202 Bemiss Springs Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+14%)	3mo	$237,000	$162	49
6154 Bemiss Springs Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+14%)	0mo	$243,900	$166	49
6186 Bemiss Springs Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+14%)	3mo	$245,000	$167	47
3679 Newbury Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+13%)	0mo	$232,500	$160	46
6420 Abney Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+14%)	6mo	$230,900	$158	45
6189 Bemiss Springs Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+14%)	4mo	$245,900	$167	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-31,375
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,027
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31605

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $72	+0% $10	+5% $-52	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-58	+0% $10	+5% $79	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $66	base $10	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 Brookfield Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,000	$1.32	22d	1	0.32mi
3905 Greenridge Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	0.33mi
3911 Nicole Ln Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,700	$1.31	22d	1	0.43mi
6412 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	22d	1	0.56mi
6416 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	45d	1	0.56mi
6043 Bemiss Towns Dr Bemiss, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,675	$1.12	22d	1	0.64mi
3905 Heatherwoods Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	22d	1	0.65mi
3553 Studstill Rd Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,000	$0.96	22d	1	0.69mi
3844 Coventry Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	22d	1	0.69mi
4125 Barrington Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,500	$1.24	45d	1	0.71mi
3925 Glen Laurel Dr S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,850	$1.23	22d	1	0.71mi
4032 Case Pt Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,050	$1.23	22d	1	0.74mi
4184 Hamilton Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,300	$1.07	22d	1	0.79mi
3491 Studstill Rd Unit A Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,200	$1.19	45d	1	0.86mi
3875 Trotters Ridge Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,700	$1.32	22d	1	0.86mi
3964 Crusader Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,400	$1.30	22d	1	0.95mi
3912 Duke Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,000	$1.08	22d	1	1.01mi
4051 Gramercy Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,300	$1.30	22d	1	1.02mi
4001 Conway Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,000	$1.11	22d	1	1.10mi
6023 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,550	$1.03	22d	1	1.26mi
6042 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,700	$1.11	22d	1	1.26mi
4007 Foxridge Ln Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	22d	1	1.41mi
5026 Pearl Davis Rd Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,200	$0.99	22d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $219,900 Active
2. 1983-03-05
   soldstatus $47,800
3. 1983-03-05
   soldstatus $47,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,350 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$892
• After-tax cash flow: $1,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bemiss

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bemiss, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 24,280
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,829
• Household income: $79,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.74%
• Current HPI: 189.8471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+360.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $219,900 SGMLS
• 1983-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,800 Public Records
• 1983-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $47,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,350 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.