Is 12500 Melville Dr Unit 345D in Montgomery, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D+ with a 5.8% cap rate and $-87/mo modeled cash flow at a $199,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 12500 Melville Dr Unit 345D?

The modeled cap rate is 5.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,752/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🌊 Lakefront

D+ Composite 47.89

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +10.9/30.0
Schools +5.9/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.8/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
DSCR +3.2/10.0
Rent growth +1.7/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$199,000

12500 Melville Dr Unit 345D · Montgomery, TX 77356

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Condo · 109 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $146/sqft · 33% below area Est $296k · 33% under · waterfront $96/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Set apart by its larger floor plan and two balconies overlooking scenic Lake Conroe, this 2-bedroom, 3-bath condo in Harbor Village inside Walden delivers a rare mix of space, views & lake access. The open living area showcases soaring ceilings, abundant light, a spiral staircase to the loft & sliding doors to a private balcony w/ beautiful water views. The kitchen features full-size appliances, a breakfast bar & plenty of storage while the loft offers flexible space for guests or a home office & access to a rare “Texas basement”—a walk-in attic for easy storage.

Key facts

Two balconies
Private balcony
Texas basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (6.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1304 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,186 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.88% ✗
Cap rate: 5.77%
Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
DSCR: 0.92
GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $296,248
List price: $199,000
Delta: -32.83%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.0%
Equity multiple: 0.23×
Total profit: $-42,854
Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

IRR: -29.3%
Equity multiple: -0.15×
Total profit: $-63,968
Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

Home prices YoY: -30.3%
Rents YoY: -3.3%
Active inventory: 1304
Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,752 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
Insurance: −$83
HOA: −$96
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,862

Max offer price $186,371

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $-19	+0% $-87	+5% $-156	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-156	+0% $-87	+5% $-18	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-37	base $-87	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $49,750
Closing costs: $5,970
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12500 Melville Dr Unit 227C Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,700	$1.85	93d	1	0.02mi
12500 Melville Dr Unit 317B Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$1,550	$1.72	93d	1	0.02mi
12255 Trail Hollow Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	64d	1	0.12mi
12100 Melville Dr Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,750	$1.82	93d	2	0.22mi
13155 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$1,295	$1.82	16d	2	0.85mi
3818 Treasure Island Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,200	$1.22	40d	1	0.98mi
11243 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,675	$1.16	4d	1	1.12mi
11231 Glenforest Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,499	$1.01	71d	1	1.12mi
3679 Windswept Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,000	$1.09	68d	1	1.13mi
16020 Fountainview Dr #12 Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,550	$1.07	1d	1	1.39mi
16020 Fountainview Dr Unit 17 Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,700	$1.06	62d	1	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Lakefront / lake view property
Financial info: Lease not considered
HOA & community: Walden on Lake Conroe communityAnnual association feeAssociation amenities include: basketball court, boat dock, marina, boat ramp, clubhouse, sport court, dog park, fitness center, golf course, picnic area, playground, pickleball, park, pool, tennis courts, trailsAssociation fee includes maintenance of grounds, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

Parking: No assigned parking
Security: Smoke detector(s)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property3 storiesHas a viewFull ownership
Construction: Built in 1978Cement siding and wood sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: BalconyDeckPatioStorageTennis courtsAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeDisposalRefrigerator
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 15x12Bedroom (First floor) — 10x13Two bonus rooms (Second floor) — each 14x8
Flooring: CarpetTileWood
Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom (First floor) — 11x15Bathroom (First floor) — 11x5Bathroom (Second floor) — 8x4
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)Has heating and cooling
Interior features: Breakfast barBalconyHigh ceilingsKitchen/family room comboLaminate countersTub/showerVaulted ceiling(s)Window treatmentsCeiling fan(s)LoftLiving/dining roomProgrammable thermostatWindow coverings
Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

HOA detail $96/mo · $1,152/yr condo

Likely covers: water
Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $199,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $199,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $199,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $199,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $199,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $199,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $199,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $199,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $199,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $199,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $199,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $199,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-15

pricedays on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $208,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $208,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $208,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $208,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $208,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $208,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $208,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $208,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $208,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $208,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $208,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $208,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $208,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $208,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $208,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $208,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $208,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $208,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $208,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $208,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $208,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $208,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $208,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $208,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $208,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $208,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $208,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $208,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $208,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $208,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $208,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $208,000 Active 43 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,022
− Mortgage interest: −$11,147
− Property taxes: −$2,985
− Insurance: −$995
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
− Management: −$1,682
− HOA: −$1,152
− Depreciation: −$5,789
Taxable loss: −$4,409

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,058
After-tax cash flow: $11/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,800–$20,400 screening

This well-maintained and spacious 2-bedroom, 3-bath condo offers a rare mix of space, views, and lake access in a desirable location.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
Rental Clean the pool and surrounding area — Keeps the property looking well-maintained and attractive to renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Madeley Ranch El C+ TX #505/4,322 Nat'l #8,534/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Montgomery ISD
NCES district ID: 4831260
Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $75,596
Composite: 53.55/100
National rank: #1445
State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

Score: 70/100
State rank: #372
US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 67,277
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 32,583
Household income: $106,804
Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
Current HPI: 233.0032
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-04-21 Listed $208,000 HARMLS
2026-02-02 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
2025-12-18 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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