437 White Mills Rd · Big Clifty, KY 42788

$63,800

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1905 1.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a fixer upper? This may be the one for you. Over an acre lot, with barn and detached garage. All property details to be verified by buyer.

Key facts

• Barn
• Over an acre lot
• Detached garage

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE LOT
• BARN
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Corner lot; Storage building; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Space heater; Window unit cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Gas log fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($956 rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.8% in Big Clifty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#516 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($441 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,058 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.40%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $31,746
• Equity at exit: $28,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $79,234
• Equity at exit: $44,210

Cash invested: $17,864 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42788

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$335
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $195/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $478

Max offer price $63,800

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,950
• Closing costs: $1,914
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $63,800 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,800 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,800 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,800 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,800 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $63,800 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $63,800 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $63,800 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,800 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $63,800 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,800 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $63,800 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,800 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,800 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,800 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $63,800 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $64,800
18. 2026-05-15
    price $65,499
19. 2026-04-28
    price $67,499
20. 2026-04-13
    price $69,499
21. 2026-03-09
    listed $72,499 Active
22. 2025-12-15
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $195 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$30/mo · 182.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,574
• − Property taxes: −$195
• − Insurance: −$319
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$1,856
• Taxable income: $3,697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$887
• After-tax cash flow: $3,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Big Clifty

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #516
• US rank: #26413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 339

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 7% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $64,800 HKARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $65,499 HKARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $67,499 HKARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $69,499 HKARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $72,499 HKARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $195 · +42.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.