1227 Thomas Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$269,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,249 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1908 4,791 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic two story home loaded with charm ready to add your finishes. Brand new carpeting installed throughout, newer boiler, windows, siding and is rock solid structurally with a huge kitchen and large master. Large tree in the front provides privacy as well as excellent shade to enjoy the front sunroom. Main level bedroom perfect for an office or guest bedroom. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1908
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 200+ amp electrical service; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Main level primary bedroom noted; Above-grade finished area reported
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Vinyl exterior; Chain link fencing; Medium tree coverage on lot; Lot dimensions approximately 123 x 40

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Main floor primary bedroom; Three bedrooms on upper level; Main floor bedroom options (3 BR on one level noted)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on upper level; 1 three-quarter bathroom on main floor
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $246,431 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-37,199
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-27,365
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,566/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,310

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $198	+0% $122	+5% $45	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $24	+0% $122	+5% $219	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $190	base $122	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1555 Selby Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$4,394	$3.89	0d	6	1.12mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $269,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $279,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,566 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,566 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$3,566
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$3,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $2,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+9.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $279,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-11 Sold (MLS) $239,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-16 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Price Changed $240,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-05 Price Changed $244,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-17 Listed $254,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,566 · +22.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.