476 Jones Beach Ln · Jarrell, TX 76537

$204,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $207k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 476 Jones Beach Ln, Jarrell, TX 76537; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $224,499
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No utility details provided
• Home design: Kitson floor plan; Spec/new construction
• Construction: No year built or construction material provided
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1402 (listed)

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: Spec home in the Kitson plan
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-638/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $172,601 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,496
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Jones Beach Cv	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	1mo	$212,990	$151	96
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-3%)	1mo	$220,990	$163	93
261 Kings Row Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-3%)	1mo	$200,990	$148	92
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-3%)	1mo	$217,990	$161	88
121 Texas Angel Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-3%)	1mo	$198,999	$147	88
433 Jones Beach Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+6%)	1mo	$208,999	$141	81
417 Jones Beach Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+6%)	1mo	$220,990	$149	80
405 Jones Beach Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+6%)	1mo	$212,990	$144	79
444 Jones Beach Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-14%)	1mo	$188,990	$156	74
506 Jones Beach Cv	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$236,990	$148	68
436 Jones Beach Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$236,990	$148	67
527 Jones Beach Cv	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$230,990	$144	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-41,636
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-60,058
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $197,308

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	23d	1	0.12mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	43d	1	0.14mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	0.14mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	20d	1	0.15mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	43d	1	0.18mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	43d	1	0.22mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	2d	1	0.25mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,775	$1.11	17d	1	0.27mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	43d	1	0.34mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	14d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,999 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,999 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,999 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $204,999 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 419-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $224,499 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$996
• After-tax cash flow: $358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B