413 Church St · Ridgely, TN 38080

$34,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1994 $34/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Comfy Sized Home-Perfect Size For The First Home. Living Room Is Of Good Size, Kitchen/Dining Room “The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. ” “Cash offers require 10% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater, and all financed offers require 1% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater. ”

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Counter space
• Built 1994

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• GOOD SIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF CABINETS
• COUNTER SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($959 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#272 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lake County (rural): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #135 of 139 in TN (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.64%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,329
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -65.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
217 North St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+2%)	1mo	$104,900	$99	93
307 King St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	885 (-15%)	16mo	$80,000	$90	48
423 N College St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,196 (+15%)	21mo	$136,000	$114	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $26,850
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.68×
• Total profit: $65,289
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38080

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $314

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-04
   remarks 349-char remark
2. 2026-06-04
   status $34,900 Pending 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $34,900 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $34,900 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $34,900 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,900 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-04-24
   price $39,600 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Comfy Sized Home-Perfect Size For The First Home. Living Room Is Of Good Size, Kitchen/Dining Room “The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. ” “Cash offers require 10% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater, and all financed offers require 1% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater. ”

8. 2026-04-10
   price $44,000 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Comfy Sized Home-Perfect Size For The First Home. Living Room Is Of Good Size, Kitchen/Dining Room “The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. ” “Cash offers require 10% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater, and all financed offers require 1% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater. ”

9. 2026-03-19
   price $52,200 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   Comfy Sized Home-Perfect Size For The First Home. Living Room Is Of Good Size, Kitchen/Dining Room “The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. ” “Cash offers require 10% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater, and all financed offers require 1% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater. ”

10. 2026-01-23
    price $55,100 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Comfy Sized Home-Perfect Size For The First Home. Living Room Is Of Good Size, Kitchen/Dining Room “The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. ” “Cash offers require 10% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater, and all financed offers require 1% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater. ”

11. 2025-12-19
    listed $58,000 Active 350-char remark

    Show marketing remark (350 chars)

    Comfy Sized Home-Perfect Size For The First Home. Living Room Is Of Good Size, Kitchen/Dining Room “The seller does not accept blind offers or escalation clauses. ” “Cash offers require 10% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater, and all financed offers require 1% EMD or $1,000 minimum, whichever is greater. ”

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$921
• − Management: −$921
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $5,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $4,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake County
• NCES district ID: 4702280
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $29,058
• Composite: 9.69/100
• National rank: #9833
• State rank: #135 of 139 in TN

Livability — Ridgely

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #19162

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridgely, TN
• Population (ZIP): 2,492

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,234 people
• By 2030: 7,045 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 6,848 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 6,681 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 5,629 · -22.2%
• By 2100: 4,211 · -41.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.9) · D 22.1% · R 77.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.1pp toward R · 2008: -6.7pp · 2024: -54.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.9 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+6.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.11%
• Current HPI: 178.0147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-31.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $39,600 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $44,000 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $52,200 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $55,100 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-12-19 Listed $58,000 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $602 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.