804 Pioneer Ave · Aztec, NM 87410

$74,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1950 $58/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your tools and imagination! Significant renovations needed. Completely fenced large lot. Storage unit on property. www. auction.com date 05/10- 05/12/2026Property sold ''as is, '' no repairs by seller, Cash Only. Please read the auction page before submitting offer. All offers must be submitted through the property's listing page on www. auction.com. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval. Water leak/mold in front living area. AC inoperable. Wall heaters may be inoperable. Strong odor in property. No gas meter. No water heater. AUCTION. COM is the website

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#98 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.74%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,449
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -50.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $29,866
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $80,068
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87410

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $534/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $593

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   pricestatus $74,900 Pending 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $79,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-03-24
    listed $79,900 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Bring your tools and imagination! Significant renovations needed. Completely fenced large lot. Storage unit on property. www. auction.com date 05/10- 05/12/2026Property sold ''as is, '' no repairs by seller, Cash Only. Please read the auction page before submitting offer. All offers must be submitted through the property's listing page on www. auction.com. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval. Water leak/mold in front living area. AC inoperable. Wall heaters may be inoperable. Strong odor in property. No gas meter. No water heater. AUCTION. COM is the website

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $534 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$534
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $7,111
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,707
• After-tax cash flow: $6,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aztec Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500150
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 33.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5328
• State rank: #12 of 29 in NM

Livability — Aztec

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #18096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aztec, NM
• Population (ZIP): 14,372

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Native American 12% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.31%
• Current HPI: 156.6284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $79,900 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $534 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.