469 Hatfield Br · McCarr, KY 41544

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 243 Days on market

Fair condition 1.00 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home Sweet Home-tucked away in the peaceful hills this cozy two bedroom, one bath cabin offers the perfect blend of simplicity and serenity. With a welcoming living room and kitchen, it's an ideal retreat for gardening enthusiast, animal lovers, and anyone who cherishes the beauty of nature. Just moments from the famous Hatfield McCoy Trail, this Haven invites you to slow down, breathe, deep, and enjoy the simple life surrounded by mountain tranquility.

Key facts

• Mountain tranquility
• 1 acre lot
• Listed 243 days

Tags

• WELCOMING LIVING ROOM
• FAMOUS HATFIELD MCCOY TRAIL
• MOUNTAIN TRANQUILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($833 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#485 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $14,206
• Equity at exit: $29,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $42,950
• Equity at exit: $42,345

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41544

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $651

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $75,000 Pending 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-04-13
    price $75,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Home Sweet Home-tucked away in the peaceful hills this cozy two bedroom, one bath cabin offers the perfect blend of simplicity and serenity. With a welcoming living room and kitchen, it's an ideal retreat for gardening enthusiast, animal lovers, and anyone who cherishes the beauty of nature. Just moments from the famous Hatfield McCoy Trail, this Haven invites you to slow down, breathe, deep, and enjoy the simple life surrounded by mountain tranquility.

13. 2025-10-12
    listed $89,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Home Sweet Home-tucked away in the peaceful hills this cozy two bedroom, one bath cabin offers the perfect blend of simplicity and serenity. With a welcoming living room and kitchen, it's an ideal retreat for gardening enthusiast, animal lovers, and anyone who cherishes the beauty of nature. Just moments from the famous Hatfield McCoy Trail, this Haven invites you to slow down, breathe, deep, and enjoy the simple life surrounded by mountain tranquility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$800
• − Management: −$800
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$135
• After-tax cash flow: $1,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This two-bedroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat with basic amenities. It requires moderate updates to kitchen and bathroom, as well as exterior siding and interior paint to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear
• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated design
• Minor bathroom fixtures — dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing kitchen
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing bathroom
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting — enhances interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen cabinets · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets — modernizing kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizing bathroom ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting — enhances interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — McCarr

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #24298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 455

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Foreign-born: 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Current HPI: 117.7733
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $75,000 EKAR
• 2025-10-12 Listed $89,000 EKAR

Property tax history

+31.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,079 · +121.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.