5800 Pinetree Ave · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$368,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1963 $202/sqft · 29% below area Est $515k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turn-key, fully furnished pool home just minutes from the beach — bring your suitcase and start enjoying Panama City Beach immediately. Major upgrades already done, private backyard oasis, and no HOA make this a rare move-in-ready opportunity. Well-maintained 3BR/2BA home in the heart of Panama City Beach just minutes from the beach, restaurants, and shopping. This 1,825 sq ft property offers the charm of a classic coastal home with major updates already completed. Recent improvements include a new roof (2021), septic system (2011), screened pool enclosure and pool heater (2024), and an in-ground pool added in 2011. The interior features spacious living areas and updated kitchen cabinetry completed in 2024. A permitted addition in 2005 provides extra living space rarely found in homes of this age. Sold fully furnished and turn-key, making it perfect as a primary residence, second home, or investment property. No HOA and appliances included. Move in and start enjoying the beach lifestyle immediately.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Pool heater
• New roof

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• NEW ROOF
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• SCREENED POOL ENCLOSURE
• POOL HEATER
• IN-GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $368k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.1% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,246 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $514,828
• List price: $368,000
• Delta: -28.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5722 Pinetree Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-8%)	0mo	$625,000	$372	80
5501 Lagoon Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-5%)	8mo	$290,000	$167	73
5403 S Lagoon Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-10%)	3mo	$420,000	$255	68
5309 Gulf Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,786 (-2%)	1mo	$2,450,000	$1,372	67
3924 Benbow St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,812 (-1%)	7mo	$708,000	$391	62
5423 Hilltop Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,633 (-10%)	10mo	$615,000	$377	62
6507 S Lagoon Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-5%)	3mo	$350,000	$201	60
3920 Benbow St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,791 (-2%)	11mo	$605,000	$338	59
5214 Trelawney Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,971 (+8%)	1mo	$425,000	$216	58
6418 Beach Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,625 (-11%)	2mo	$769,000	$473	53
3617 Biltmore Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,596 (-12%)	9mo	$270,000	$169	53
2918 Treasure Cir	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,022 (+11%)	1mo	$619,000	$306	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-79,030
• Equity at exit: $54,870

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-97,271
• Equity at exit: $31,818

Cash invested: $103,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,762 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,930
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,812/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,123

Max offer price $317,663

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-77	-5% $-181	+0% $-285	+5% $-389	+10% $-493
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-394	+0% $-285	+5% $-176	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-191	base $-285	+0.5pp $-380	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,000
• Closing costs: $11,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5402 Pinetree Ave Unit 1447170P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$6,216	$3.83	23d	1	0.34mi
6238 Thomas Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	4.0	2367	$4,000	$1.69	23d	1	0.42mi
6320 Beach Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,800	$1.72	23d	1	0.47mi
3704 Tiki Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	23d	1	0.86mi
7125 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.99mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $368,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $368,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $368,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $368,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $368,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $368,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $368,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $368,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $368,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $368,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $368,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $368,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $368,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $368,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $368,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $368,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $368,000 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $368,000 Active 98 DOM
19. 2026-02-17
    listed $368,000 Active 1020-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1020 chars)

    Turn-key, fully furnished pool home just minutes from the beach — bring your suitcase and start enjoying Panama City Beach immediately. Major upgrades already done, private backyard oasis, and no HOA make this a rare move-in-ready opportunity. Well-maintained 3BR/2BA home in the heart of Panama City Beach just minutes from the beach, restaurants, and shopping. This 1,825 sq ft property offers the charm of a classic coastal home with major updates already completed. Recent improvements include a new roof (2021), septic system (2011), screened pool enclosure and pool heater (2024), and an in-ground pool added in 2011. The interior features spacious living areas and updated kitchen cabinetry completed in 2024. A permitted addition in 2005 provides extra living space rarely found in homes of this age. Sold fully furnished and turn-key, making it perfect as a primary residence, second home, or investment property. No HOA and appliances included. Move in and start enjoying the beach lifestyle immediately.

20. 2025-12-18
    historical
21. 2025-08-01
    price $372,000
22. 2025-07-25
    status Active
23. 2025-07-25
    historical
24. 2025-07-23
    historical
25. 2025-06-17
    listed $385,000 Active
26. 2025-06-17
    listed $385,000 Active
27. 2021-03-16
    soldstatus $255,000
28. 2021-03-15
    soldstatus $255,000
29. 2020-10-08
    listed $275,000
30. 2005-04-05
    soldstatus $179,900
31. 1995-12-01
    soldstatus $51,000
32. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,812 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,812 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,614
• − Property taxes: −$3,812
• − Insurance: −$2,638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,652
• − Management: −$2,652
• − Depreciation: −$10,705
• Taxable loss: −$9,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1032.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $368,000 Fizber.com
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $372,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $385,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $385,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-15 Sold (MLS) $255,000 CPARMLS
• 2020-10-08 Listed $275,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 1995-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,812 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.