5323 Colonial Oaks Dr N · Mobile, AL 36618

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1980 0.36 ac lot Est $164k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Estate sale property . Solid 3/2 brick home in need of updating and some TLC . Sale must be approved by probate court. This property has a good sized workshop and carport in the rear of back yard. Ideal for boat storage or other toys. This property has it's driveway adjacent to the neighbor's making it appear as a double driveway. Contact your realtor for an appointment. This won't last long.

Key facts

• Double driveway
• Carport
• Boat storage

Tags

• WORKSHOP
• CARPORT
• BOAT STORAGE
• DOUBLE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Hill Elementary School (math 4% / reading 23%, grade F, #531 of 627 statewide, top 85%, 549 students, 93% FRL); Murphy High School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,254 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.71%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1967 Highland Forest Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+7%)	2mo	$174,200	$116	83
5231 Colonial Cir	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-4%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	71
1600 Decatur St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-1%)	0mo	$83,000	$59	70
5311 Colonial Oaks Dr N	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,548 (+10%)	10mo	$106,500	$69	68
5408 N Colonial Cir	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,574 (+12%)	2mo	$119,000	$76	64
1613 Crestwood Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+2%)	9mo	$203,000	$141	64
5512 Overlook Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-0%)	1mo	$148,000	$105	64
1724 Sandalwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-5%)	2mo	$190,000	$142	59
5759 Colonial Ln N	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,332 (-6%)	0mo	$139,000	$104	53
5462 Racine Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+10%)	1mo	$245,000	$157	53
1620 Crestwood Dr	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (+8%)	7mo	$180,000	$118	52
5224 Persons Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (+12%)	9mo	$195,000	$123	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,778
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $34,272
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36618

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,401 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $935

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1631 Colonial Oaks Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.46mi
5520 Vienna Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1745	$1,395	$0.80	43d	1	0.72mi
5508 Overlook Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,400	$1.11	13d	1	0.73mi
5613 Overlook Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	1.5	1520	$1,450	$0.95	43d	1	0.82mi
5751 Overlook Rd Unit A2 Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	890	$850	$0.96	20d	1	0.90mi
1104 Garland St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	20d	1	1.33mi
914 David Langan Dr E Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	1.33mi
1728 Tew Dr Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	912	$995	$1.09	43d	1	1.39mi
5477 Ardell Dr Unit 1043691P Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,680	$1.79	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-19
   status Active
3. 2025-10-30
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-23
   listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$649
• After-tax cash flow: $3,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 17,892
• Household income: $61,550
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 542.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 27% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.54%
• Current HPI: 218.7133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2025-10-30 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2025-10-23 Listed $115,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.