1013 SE 1070 Rd · Deepwater, MO 64740

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Other public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1980 7,200 sqft lot $88/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom, 1 Bath Ranch Home in Truman Lake Area borders corp ground and very close to boat launch. Winter Truman Lakeview! Vinyl Siding, Metal Roof, Deck and a Wood Stove in the Family Room. Very Nice Large Storage Shed! Perfect for a fulltime home or a weekend getaway! Look Now this home won't last long!!

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 74 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($939 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#851 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakeland R-III (rural): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #269 of 324 in MO (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeland Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 222 students, 66% FRL); Lakeland High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 191 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $90k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.80%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,775
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -57.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $22,568
• Equity at exit: $40,423

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $63,832
• Equity at exit: $62,297

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64740

• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $577/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $210	+0% $185	+5% $159	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $148	+0% $185	+5% $222	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $208	base $185	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    listed $99,900 Active 311-char remark

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    2 Bedroom, 1 Bath Ranch Home in Truman Lake Area borders corp ground and very close to boat launch. Winter Truman Lakeview! Vinyl Siding, Metal Roof, Deck and a Wood Stove in the Family Room. Very Nice Large Storage Shed! Perfect for a fulltime home or a weekend getaway! Look Now this home won't last long!!

18. 2016-02-05
    soldstatus $32,000
19. 2007-03-27
    soldstatus 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    2 bedroom Ranch, Lakeview & borders Corp land, 8/10 of a mile to boat ramp, storage shed, located on dead-end road. Woodstove in Family room.

20. 2007-03-27
    soldstatus $46,950

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    2 bedroom Ranch, Lakeview & borders Corp land, 8/10 of a mile to boat ramp, storage shed, located on dead-end road. Woodstove in Family room.

21. 2005-06-13
    listed $47,950 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    2 bedroom Ranch, Lakeview & borders Corp land, 8/10 of a mile to boat ramp, storage shed, located on dead-end road. Woodstove in Family room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $577 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$577
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$901
• − Management: −$901
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $2,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland R-III
• NCES district ID: 2910520
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $32,340
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7388
• State rank: #269 of 324 in MO

Livability — Deepwater

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #851
• US rank: #24819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,568

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,584 people
• By 2030: 19,839 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 18,305 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 16,893 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 14,285 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 11,905 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.6) · D 23.2% · R 75.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: -11.0pp · 2024: -52.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.6 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+25.9 2008: R+11.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+108.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $99,900 WCAR
• 2016-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $46,950 Public Records
• 2007-03-27 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-13 Listed $47,950 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $577 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.