5254 Mount Olive Rd · Polk City, FL 33868

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1987 9,492 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Really nice home with all appliances. Easy access to I-4. Priced to sell. No maintenance fees. Not part of park.

Key facts

• Large eat-in kitchen
• Separate dining room
• New cabinets

Tags

• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.22 acres (75 x 125); Living area about 1620 square feet

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); One story; South-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom floor plan; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside the home; Laundry closet; Laundry area in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Polk City Elementary School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 606 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $200k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.78%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,278
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $28,238
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33868

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,745/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8755 Rindge Rd Polk City, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,200	$1.03	14d	1	0.23mi
8519 Rindge Rd Polk City, FL	4.0	3.0	1990	$2,750	$1.38	14d	1	0.40mi
5760 Viburnum Ct Polk City, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$1,700	$1.19	23d	1	0.69mi
349 Honey Bee Ln Polk City, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,850	$1.40	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $200,000
3. 2026-03-17
   status Active
4. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-21
   price $220,000
6. 2025-12-04
   price $245,000
7. 2025-11-15
   listed $250,000 Active
8. 2021-12-30
   soldstatus $75,000
9. 2021-04-30
   historical

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Really nice home with all appliances. Easy access to I-4. Priced to sell. No maintenance fees. Not part of park.

10. 2021-04-30
    historical 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Really nice home with all appliances. Easy access to I-4. Priced to sell. No maintenance fees. Not part of park.

11. 2009-08-28
    soldstatus $40,500
12. 2009-08-20
    listed $49,900
13. 2009-04-27
    listed $49,900
14. 2008-11-18
    listed $49,900
15. 2008-10-27
    historical
16. 2007-10-05
    listed $64,900
17. 2007-03-01
    listed $86,900 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    Really nice home with all appliances. Easy access to I-4. Priced to sell. No maintenance fees. Not part of park.

18. 2006-09-01
    historical
19. 2006-08-15
    listed $89,900
20. 2004-12-02
    soldstatus $69,900
21. 2004-07-23
    listed $79,900
22. 2004-04-08
    listed $69,900
23. 1972-08-01
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,745
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,152
• − Management: −$2,152
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,829
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$439
• After-tax cash flow: $4,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Polk City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #9243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,676

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.52%
• Current HPI: 325.6917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-28 Sold (MLS) $40,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-20 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-27 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-18 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-05 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-01 Listed $86,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-15 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2004-07-23 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-08 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1972-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,745 · +45.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.