4426 4th St NW · Rochester, MN 55901

$324,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1985 8,276 sqft lot $179/sqft · at area comps Est $322k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this nicely maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath split-level home that offers a warm, cozy feel with thoughtful updates throughout. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, while recent improvements add peace of mind, including a new roof (2023), newer garage door, and updated kitchen appliances. A radon mitigation system is already in place for added reassurance. Step outside to enjoy a beautiful deck, deck boards replaced in 2023, overlooking a lovely yard designed for enjoyment and relaxation, complete with a charming bonfire pit perfect for evenings with friends and family. The driveway was lifted in 2025, enhancing both curb appeal and functionality. Ideally located

Key facts

• Bonfire pit
• Beautiful deck
• Lifted driveway

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• RADON MITIGATION SYSTEM
• BEAUTIFUL DECK
• BONFIRE PIT
• LIFTED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with concrete driveway
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) home; Irregular lot shape; Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Block foundation; Foundation area approximately 936; Roof replaced or under 8 years old
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (several located on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bath; Basement 3/4 bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished daylight basement with lookout windows; Kitchen/dining room layout; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Marshall Senior High (math 37% / reading 58%, grade D, #162 of 471 statewide, top 35%, 1,573 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $324k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $302,659 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.54%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,521
• List price: $324,000
• Delta: 0.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-37,962
• Equity at exit: $48,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-21,212
• Equity at exit: $28,014

Cash invested: $90,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55901

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,699
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,472/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,688

Max offer price $324,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,000
• Closing costs: $9,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3680 9th St NW Rochester, MN	2.0–3.0	2.5	1600	$2,695	$1.68	13d	17	0.76mi
4275 Heritage Pl NW Rochester, MN	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2067	$3,946	$1.91	13d	9	1.35mi
2127 Preserve Dr NW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.5	2136	$3,675	$1.72	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 937-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $324,000 Active 937-char remark
3. 1996-11-15
   soldstatus $96,000
4. 1992-02-01
   soldstatus $89,500
5. 1985-07-01
   soldstatus $16,975

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,472 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$7/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,319
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,149
• − Property taxes: −$3,472
• − Insurance: −$1,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,906
• − Management: −$2,906
• − Depreciation: −$9,425
• Taxable loss: −$2,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$518
• After-tax cash flow: $3,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 58,495
• Household income: $94,607
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.08%
• Current HPI: 253.7999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1808.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $324,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 1985-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,975 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,472 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.