The Demitri Plan · Visalia, CA 93277

$199,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 406 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rancho Fiesta - our project is located in one of the best parts of Visalia, with large lots that your family can grow in, as well as state of the art brand new homes that you can all be proud of. Our fantastic 2, 3 and 4 bedroom floorplans will give you everything that you wanted for equal to or perhaps even less than what you're now paying for rent. If that weren't enough community offers full court basketball, two swimming pools, and a beautiful clubhouse with all kinds of activities. Isn't it time that you and your family had their own home? Once you see craftsman in Rancho Fiesta by Family Homes, you to will know that these are not your grandmother's manufactured homes!

Key facts

• Two swimming pools
• Large lots
• Beautiful clubhouse

Tags

• LARGE LOTS
• STATE OF THE ART HOMES
• FULL COURT BASKETBALL
• TWO SWIMMING POOLS
• BEAUTIFUL CLUBHOUSE

🏗️ New construction. The $199,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $67,910.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 3.3% in Visalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, cost of living F.
• Visalia Unified (urban): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #273 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 406 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 406 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.07%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,910
• List price: $199,995
• Delta: 194.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5505 W Tulare Ave #330	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$105,000	$78	96
5505 W Tulare Ave #337	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	4mo	$75,000	$54	90
5505 W Tulare Ave W #246	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	6mo	$58,720	$42	88
5505 W Tulare Ave #80	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$45,000	$31	87
5505 W Tulare Ave #406	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$63,000	$44	82
5505 W Tulare Ave #339	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	9mo	$117,000	$94	81
5505 W Tulare Ave #47	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	15mo	$53,000	$39	80
5505 W Tulare Ave #317	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,440 (+7%)	22mo	$78,000	$54	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $59,367
• Equity at exit: $10,126

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.58×
• Total profit: $144,210
• Equity at exit: $5,872

Cash invested: $19,015 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93277

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,019/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $1,094

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $67,910

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,977
• Closing costs: $2,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4928 Westgate Ct Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	1069	$2,200	$2.06	21d	1	0.34mi
4845 W Cypress Ave Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,650	$1.61	43d	1	0.49mi
1849 S Noyes St Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1497	$2,250	$1.50	43d	1	0.63mi
700 S Linwood St Unit 720 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,650	$1.57	43d	1	0.75mi
1927 S Julieann Ct Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,000	$1.20	21d	1	0.86mi
5948 W Crowley Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,270	$1.45	21d	1	0.93mi
5936 W Oak Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,950	$1.16	43d	1	0.97mi
4052 W Meadow Ave Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,340	$1.53	21d	1	0.98mi
3900-4054 W Meadow Ave Unit 4052 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,340	$1.53	21d	1	1.00mi
3900-4054 W Meadow Ave Unit 3936 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,365	$1.56	43d	1	1.00mi
3936 W Meadow Ave Visalia, CA	2.0	1.0	877	$1,365	$1.56	43d	1	1.00mi
4731 W School Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,900	$1.48	43d	1	1.02mi
201 N Bollinger St Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1194	$1,995	$1.67	43d	1	1.04mi
5433 W La Vida Ct Visalia, CA	4.0	2.5	1513	$2,095	$1.38	43d	1	1.07mi
537 N Tommy St Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,995	$1.76	43d	1	1.09mi
1021 W Payson Ave Visalia, CA	4.0	3.0	1758	$2,595	$1.48	43d	1	1.13mi
815 S Demaree St Unit 33 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.5	890	$1,300	$1.46	21d	1	1.13mi
815 S Demaree St Unit 11 Visalia, CA	3.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	43d	1	1.13mi
815 S Demaree St Apt 40 Visalia, CA	2.0	1.5	890	$1,300	$1.46	43d	1	1.13mi
1212 S Demaree St Visalia, CA	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	43d	1	1.15mi
4700 W Caldwell Ave Visalia, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$2,581	$2.90	13d	5	1.34mi
3417 W Campus Ave Visalia, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	1.37mi
4905 W Hemlock Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,895	$1.21	21d	1	1.39mi
3618 W Country Ave Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,095	$1.29	43d	1	1.45mi
4230 W Grove Ct Visalia, CA	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,300	$1.33	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,995 Active 406 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,995 Active 405 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,995 Active 404 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,995 Active 403 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,995 Active 401 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,995 Active 400 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,995 Active 398 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,995 Active 397 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,995 Active 396 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,995 Active 395 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,995 Active 392 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,995 Active 391 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,995 Active 390 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,995 Active 389 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,995 Active 388 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,995 Active 387 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $199,995 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Rancho Fiesta - our project is located in one of the best parts of Visalia, with large lots that your family can grow in, as well as state of the art brand new homes that you can all be proud of. Our fantastic 2, 3 and 4 bedroom floorplans will give you everything that you wanted for equal to or perhaps even less than what you're now paying for rent. If that weren't enough community offers full court basketball, two swimming pools, and a beautiful clubhouse with all kinds of activities. Isn't it time that you and your family had their own home? Once you see craftsman in Rancho Fiesta by Family Homes, you to will know that these are not your grandmother's manufactured homes!

18. 2026-02-26
    price $198,995 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Rancho Fiesta - our project is located in one of the best parts of Visalia, with large lots that your family can grow in, as well as state of the art brand new homes that you can all be proud of. Our fantastic 2, 3 and 4 bedroom floorplans will give you everything that you wanted for equal to or perhaps even less than what you're now paying for rent. If that weren't enough community offers full court basketball, two swimming pools, and a beautiful clubhouse with all kinds of activities. Isn't it time that you and your family had their own home? Once you see craftsman in Rancho Fiesta by Family Homes, you to will know that these are not your grandmother's manufactured homes!

19. 2025-05-09
    listed $194,995 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Rancho Fiesta - our project is located in one of the best parts of Visalia, with large lots that your family can grow in, as well as state of the art brand new homes that you can all be proud of. Our fantastic 2, 3 and 4 bedroom floorplans will give you everything that you wanted for equal to or perhaps even less than what you're now paying for rent. If that weren't enough community offers full court basketball, two swimming pools, and a beautiful clubhouse with all kinds of activities. Isn't it time that you and your family had their own home? Once you see craftsman in Rancho Fiesta by Family Homes, you to will know that these are not your grandmother's manufactured homes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,804
• − Property taxes: −$1,019
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$1,976
• Taxable income: $12,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,075
• After-tax cash flow: $10,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and functional, attracting more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and functional, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Visalia Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641160
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $51,672
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6223
• State rank: #273 of 517 in CA

Livability — Visalia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6351

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Visalia, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 163,333
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,985
• Household income: $80,548
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1896.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 40% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -371.43%
• Current HPI: 310.349
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $199,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $198,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-09 Listed $194,995 Zillow