149 White Point Rd · Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$1,450,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1986 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked within easy walking distance of Roche Harbor Resort, this highly popular vacation rental offers the perfect blend of island living and investment potential. Enjoy a leisurely stroll to the marina, shops, dining, and resort amenities, then return home to a peaceful setting that still feels private. While at “home” you can enjoy the waterfront and try to find oysters, walk on the path that leads you to the RH Sculpture Park, or simply unwind on the deck and watch the birds and enjoy the natural beauty. The spacious open-concept kitchen, dining, and living areas invite gathering, while the private bedroom spaces each feature king-size beds for maximum comfort. This well-buil

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot: approximately 1.0178 acres (prs lots 18/19); Topography: level with partial slope
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Community features: airport/runway, athletic court, boat launch, playground, trails

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Detached garage (528 sq ft)
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (Roche Harbor); Septic tank sewer; Power provided by OPALCO; Cable connected (DirecTV); Internet connected (CenturyLink)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story house; Main-level entry; Has view; Built on lot
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Tim Cowell (Westcott Bay Farm)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; High-speed internet; Irrigation; Outbuildings; Shop; Wooded vegetation; Drought-resistant landscaping; Paved areas; On waterfront with community waterfront/private beach access; Waterfront frontage (105 feet)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 1 main-level bedroom; 3 lower-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers; Main level full bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Stove / free-standing heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining room; Fireplaces; Vaulted ceilings; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater located on lower level (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($129k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.45M).
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $44k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $406k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $1,450,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.82%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $450,349
• Equity at exit: $216,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $1,273,886
• Equity at exit: $125,369

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98250

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax from tax record: −$778 /mo · $9,334/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $10,764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,375

Max offer price $1,450,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Cobblestone Ln Friday Harbor, WA	3.0	3.5	1820	$25,000	$13.74	44d	1	0.21mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $1,450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,334 · $778/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,210 · $1,184/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,876/yr (+$406/mo · 52.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥77°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$9,334
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable income: $112,012
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26,883
• After-tax cash flow: $102,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5307650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,476
• Composite: 56.64/100
• National rank: #2434
• State rank: #36 of 291 in WA

Livability — Roche Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roche Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,127

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,439 people
• By 2030: 17,871 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 18,236 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 18,468 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 19,749 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 20,348 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.4) · D 73.7% · R 22.3% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.9pp · 2024: 51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.4 2020: D+50.5 2016: D+41.6 2012: D+37.5 2008: D+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.89%
• Current HPI: 187.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $1,450,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,334 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.