423 Bay Ave · Columbia, MS 39429

$25,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,343 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1945 0.36 ac lot $19/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is currently being renovated seller is willing to do owner financing.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Listed 278 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#154 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Columbia School District (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 130 in MS (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 153.20%
• DSCR: 7.82
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,638
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -65.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $25,968
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.86×
• Total profit: $62,013
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39429

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $120/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $732

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $474	+0% $467	+5% $460	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $363	-5% $415	+0% $467	+5% $519	+10% $572
Rate	-1.0pp $480	-0.5pp $473	base $467	+0.5pp $461	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $25,000 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $25,000 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-01-14
    status Active 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    This home is currently being renovated seller is willing to do owner financing.

14. 2025-12-31
    historical 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    This home is currently being renovated seller is willing to do owner financing.

15. 2025-08-27
    listed $25,000 Active 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    This home is currently being renovated seller is willing to do owner financing.

16. 2025-07-18
    historical
17. 2024-07-17
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $120 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $198 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 65.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$120
• − Insurance: −$5,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $5,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $4,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia School District
• NCES district ID: 2801170
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,192
• Composite: 31.87/100
• National rank: #5866
• State rank: #45 of 130 in MS

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #15293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MS
• Population (ZIP): 16,583

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,813 people
• By 2030: 21,301 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 18,176 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 15,215 · -33.3%
• By 2075: 9,388 · -58.8%
• By 2100: 5,335 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 34% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.6) · D 28.7% · R 70.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -41.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.11%
• Current HPI: 132.3278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-08-27 Listed $25,000 MLSU
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-07-17 Listed $30,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $120 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.