1707 Jewel St · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$185,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1960 0.89 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located just outside city limits, this charming fixer-upper sits on a lot that is just shy of an acre offering plenty of space & potential for the right buyer. The property features a covered porch, private water well & septic system. The backyard is fenced in with additional space further back. The home needs updates both inside & out, making it a great opportunity for anyone looking to customize a property to their taste. Enjoy country-style living while still being conveniently close to town amenities. Bring your vision & turn this property into something special! Contact your favorite Realtor today!!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Country-style living
• Private water well

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• PRIVATE WATER WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COUNTRY-STYLE LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Fenced front and back yard (chain link)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,361 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.94%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,023
• Equity at exit: $27,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,651
• Equity at exit: $16,039

Cash invested: $51,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $185,500

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $353	+0% $300	+5% $248	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $231	+0% $300	+5% $370	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $348	base $300	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,375
• Closing costs: $5,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2901 Standpipe Rd Carlsbad, NM	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,500 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,500 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,500 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,500 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,500 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,500 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,500 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,500 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,500 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,500 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,500 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $185,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,065/yr (+$89/mo · 254.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,391
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$928
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − Depreciation: −$5,396
• Taxable income: $543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$130
• After-tax cash flow: $3,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $185,500 NMMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.