1309 9th St · Paducah, TX 79248

$58,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 0.26 ac lot Est $58k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 BR, 1 3/4 BA on 4 Lots. Features include, carpet, Built-in Appliances, Open Dining/Living/Kitchen. Exterior Features are Storage Shed, Storm Shelter, Metal Roof, and Aluminum Windows NO TRESPASSING. PLEASE DO NOT ACCESS PROPERTY WITHOUT BEING ACCOMPANIED BY THE LISTING AGENT OR AN AGENT WHO HAS WRITTEN PERMISSION FROM THE LISTING AGENT. As with any Exclusive Listing Agreement, owners are not to negotiate with any prospective buyers, but to refer all prospective buyers to the Listing Agent. Please do not contact any of the owners directly. This property is not for Rent, not for Lease and Owner Financing is not available.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Built-in appliances
• Open dining

Tags

• BUILT-IN APPLIANCES
• OPEN DINING
• STORAGE SHED
• STORM SHELTER
• METAL ROOF
• ALUMINUM WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Garage faces front; Carport; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Storage structure on property; Property faces west; Lot approximately 0.26 acres (100 x 115)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas central heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Skylights; Storm windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in a bathroom; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#740 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Paducah ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #766 of 1,141 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($401 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,130 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.07%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,642
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1307 9th St	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,410 (-5%)	2mo	$55,000	$39	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $39,839
• Equity at exit: $26,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $95,894
• Equity at exit: $40,191

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79248

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,243/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $547

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $548	-5% $532	+0% $515	+5% $499	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $468	+0% $515	+5% $563	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $530	base $515	+0.5pp $500	+1.0pp $485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $58,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $58,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $58,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $58,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $58,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-21
   listed $58,000 Active
7. 1996-08-28
   soldstatus
8. 1996-08-27
   soldstatus
9. 1991-08-20
   soldstatus
10. 1989-09-19
    soldstatus
11. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus
12. 1986-04-10
    soldstatus
13. 1980-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,243 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,243 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$1,243
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $5,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $4,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833900
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,369
• Composite: 35.47/100
• National rank: #9762
• State rank: #766 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #740
• US rank: #13726

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,124

Population outlook (Cottle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,369 people
• By 2030: 1,358 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 1,360 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 1,369 · +0.0%
• By 2075: 1,420 · +3.7%
• By 2100: 1,307 · -4.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 29% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Hungarian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Cottle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.5) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -45.7pp · 2024: -72.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.5 2020: R+64.5 2016: R+69.0 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+45.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $58,000 AARMLS
• 1996-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1980-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,243 · +30.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.