1219 Thomas Dr #95 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$154,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 956 sqft · Manufactured public records · 144 Days on market

Built 2003 3,200 sqft lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $188k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman Special in Emerald Pointe Resort. Roof was replaced after Hurricane Michael and recently repaired after small dryer fire. Electrical and plumbing checked out. Fire caused mostly smoke and water damage. Seller has done most of the work, still needs some cosmetic attention. Great buy with similar sized homes in Emerald Pointe selling for $225,000 and up. Convenient location close to pool and gate. Emerald Pointe is on the beach across from the Navy Base. HOA is $2,600/year and you own the land your trailer is on. No lot rental fees.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• 3,200 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• EMERALD POINTE RESORT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• ACROSS FROM NAVY BASE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $155k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,224 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.10%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,164
• List price: $154,800
• Delta: -17.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1219 Thomas Dr #106	0.00mi	2/2.0	928 (-3%)	22mo	$228,000	$246	77
1219 Thomas Dr #10	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,032 (+8%)	11mo	$190,000	$184	76
1219 Thomas Dr #131	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,041 (+9%)	14mo	$253,900	$244	74
1219 Thomas Dr #256	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,022 (+7%)	20mo	$240,000	$235	72
1219 Thomas Dr #258	0.00mi	2/2.0	844 (-12%)	18mo	$230,000	$273	65
2437 Valley Oak Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	966 (+1%)	20mo	$90,000	$93	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,923
• Equity at exit: $23,081

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $34,129
• Equity at exit: $13,384

Cash invested: $43,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,482/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $154,800

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,700
• Closing costs: $4,644
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	0.27mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	0.39mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.59mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	0.79mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,940	$1.91	13d	41	0.94mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	1.12mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.23mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	21d	1	1.26mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	21d	1	1.28mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,250	$2.07	13d	18	1.30mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	13d	1	1.39mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	13d	1	1.41mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	21d	1	1.44mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,792	$1.86	13d	12	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,800 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,800 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 675-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   price $154,800 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,500 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,500 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,500 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,500 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,500 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $159,500 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $159,500 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,500 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $159,500 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 126 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 125 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 124 DOM
20. 2026-03-17
    price $164,900 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Handyman Special in Emerald Pointe Resort. Roof was replaced after Hurricane Michael and recently repaired after small dryer fire. Electrical and plumbing checked out. Fire caused mostly smoke and water damage. Seller has done most of the work, still needs some cosmetic attention. Great buy with similar sized homes in Emerald Pointe selling for $225,000 and up. Convenient location close to pool and gate. Emerald Pointe is on the beach across from the Navy Base. HOA is $2,600/year and you own the land your trailer is on. No lot rental fees.

21. 2026-01-26
    listed $159,000 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Handyman Special in Emerald Pointe Resort. Roof was replaced after Hurricane Michael and recently repaired after small dryer fire. Electrical and plumbing checked out. Fire caused mostly smoke and water damage. Seller has done most of the work, still needs some cosmetic attention. Great buy with similar sized homes in Emerald Pointe selling for $225,000 and up. Convenient location close to pool and gate. Emerald Pointe is on the beach across from the Navy Base. HOA is $2,600/year and you own the land your trailer is on. No lot rental fees.

22. 2025-11-07
    soldstatus $57,000
23. 2025-10-14
    price $85,000
24. 2025-10-09
    listed $99,000 Active
25. 2007-08-23
    soldstatus $123,500
26. 2007-08-23
    soldstatus $123,500
27. 2007-05-09
    listed $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 40% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,671
• − Property taxes: −$1,482
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,503
• Taxable income: $2,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$697
• After-tax cash flow: $4,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $164,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $159,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $85,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $99,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records
• 2007-08-23 Sold (MLS) $123,500 CPARMLS
• 2007-05-09 Listed $124,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,482 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.